Sticky Tar Heels - Observations from the loss

The basic plot of this game was whether the re-emergence of UNLV's place in college basketball could out muscle a under-performing UNC, who get a shot at revenge this time in their home arena. The end result was a 79-73 loss.

The oddsmakers kept it real, while UNLV is a fantastic basketball team most nights, and arguably loaded with as much talent as any team out west, the Runnin' Rebels were 4 point underdogs to the Tar Heels. Why? Home court advantage, they are UNC, and they were motivated. The Rebs lost the game by slightly more than the spread, but nonetheless it was a close game in the second half. Even though UNLV was the #20 team and UNC was unranked, this was in no way an "upset" as some media outlets have called it.

The statistics show that several players played well - starters, and the bench did not add enough to boost the Rebels to victory. Katin Reinhardt was particularly impressive with his 3 point shooting, as was Anthony Marshall. The ESPN commentators lauded Marshall considerably for his dominance over whatever guard matched up against him. Its tough to figure the Rebels losing a game where we had four players with double digit scoring, but Marshall, Reinhardt, Bennett, and Bryce Dejean-Jones all had production. They accounted for 59 of the Rebels 73 points (almost 81% of scoring). Anthony Bennett was not his normal self in the first half, and finished the game without hitting a signature three pointer. While the four that did score shared the load, very little else was contributed from the others whereas UNC didn't have that problem.

The other reason that the Rebels lost a game with four guys scoring in double digits, was a lack of effective defense. The Rebels played a passive lackadaisical defense in the first half, and when they did actually try UNC still managed to make their shoots look too easy. The Tar Heels shot 53% in the first half, compared to the Rebels 38%. Even with defensive adjustments in the second half, the Rebels were only able to drop the Tar Heels to 47.8% in the second half. Besides their free throw shooting, UNC just had a really good shooting night - whether or not the UNLV defense bothered them.

Telling stats in this one besides overall shooting, was the Rebels dominated rebounding (38-33) but turned the ball over far more than the Heels (17-12). While both teams shot poorly from the free throw line, UNC got themselves in the double bonus very early and had a lot more opportunities (at home) to make some. In all, they were 20 of 33, whereas the Rebels were 11 of 21. That's a nine point difference, enough to have swung the game into a Rebels victory.

Home advantage - The common notion is that playing in your home court gives you a ten point advantage, due to familiarity  lack of having to travel, and fan support. Putting that notion to work, that would explain our victory over then #1 UNC last year (by 10) and our loss this year. Clearly, had UNC played us at the Mack or even the Orleans this year, we likely would have won this game. On the subject of fan support, UNLV did have a robust fan contingent travel to Chapel Hill and watch the game - that speaks well of UNLV fans and how much they support the team. Bravo!

Splitting the series - While it still stings to lose a game when you've only had one previous loss, its is not a bad loss, its an explainable loss, and regard the 'legacy' that Anthony Marshall alluded to when referencing potentially beating UNC today - this still is a good legacy. The Rebs played UNC close today, and were not "dominated" in any way by them. Fact of the matter is nobody  has beaten UNC at home this year, and their overall home winning percentage is almost 90% over the last five years - and that's playing in the normally tough ACC. Beating UNC last year at a 'neutral' venue, and playing them close at home this year is an admirable accomplishment and is definitely improvement.

Mike Moser - It was nice to see Mike Moser back on the court, surprising since Coach Rice said it was unlikely and would be a game time decision, and Mike himself said  there was 'no way' that he would play in this game. But, having seen Mike in there you have to wonder whether it was the right decision. First, I don't believe Mike cost the Rebels the game. Had he not played we may have seen more of Savon Goodman, Quintrell Thomas, and Carlos Lopez-Sosa, but none of those guys had much going for them, so it was a wash. But, Mike was either not fully recovered, or likely a bit rusty. In just 12 minutes of playing time he picked up 5 fouls, and only contributed 3 points. That kind of fouling would make even Carlos Lopez-Sosa blush. Nobody is going to argue that having Mike Moser on your team is a bad thing, but it appears (hindsight 20-20) that it might have been better for Mike to bring him back against our next two cream-puff opponents (Chicago State and CSU Bakersfield).

Conclusion - In all likelihood just one of the players the Rebels normally count on to do big things (Justin Hawkins, Khem Birch, Quintrell Thomas, or Mike Moser) being productive would have won the game, or at least have made it a nail biter. The saying that you learn more from your mistakes then victories rings true, and the Rebels will benefit from this loss. I would say Katin Reinhardt should have confidence from his shooting, Bennett can be emboldened by his dunks on UNC, Marshall out played the Tar Heel guards, and Bryce Dejean-Jones made some difficult shots. Everyone else knows they can and have done better. The Rebels may fall a few spots in the rankings, or may fall out completely - not their fault. It all depends on who's popular among the voting group, and whether there are 25 better teams out there then the Rebels. Clearly, New Mexico has claim to one of  those spots, but it will take more from Texas and UCLA to lay claim to one given their records so far this year. UNC may have gotten back into the high 20's with this win, who knows.

College Basketball

UNLV vs. UNC - My MVP’s Played Not a Single Minute

By Jason Taylor

11-27-2011

Yes… With a reported 40-50 NBA scouts in attendance, Chase Stanback chose a terrific night to drop 28 points and seize 10 rebounds, and Mike Moser chose a great night to grab an astounding 18 rebounds amongst the “ Red Woods” of UNC and to begin showing his 3 point scoring ability. 

It was an all-around team effort.  Marshall, Bellfield, Lopez, Massamba, Hawkins, Thomas… they ALL played really, really well.

In my book, however the biggest stars of the night didn’t play a single minute.  The credit for this win belongs the Rebel Coaching Staff.

In my September piece for RebelReign, “And Then, There Was Rice”, I addressed the idea of what Coach Rice’s “Runnin’” might mean for the Rebels.

Of the compiled list exemplifying what might be meant by “Runnin’”, the following have pretty much rung true as staples to Rice’s offense:

• Quickly identify defensive seams, and attack at first light.
• Guards run the wings looking for quick outlet passes, even on in-bound plays.
• Players have more authority to make decisions based on flow.
• The “Bigs” run the lanes looking for dishes and clean-up work.
• “Offensive Sets” rely on quick lateral movement.
• Guards/Forwards often penetrate and create the “draw and dish”, or finish.
• “Face-up”, or “catch and shoot” jumpers become increasingly important.
• Deep and frequent use of the bench.

Former Reblel’s coach, Lon Kruger, has gained success over the years through consistency.  His teams apply high defensive pressure and a very consistent offensive effort that takes few chances.  Kruger’s games are largely won due to favorable turnover rates.

Coach Rice has dialed up a formula for maximum speed, which has indeed increased the number of turnovers, but in exchange for higher overall scores.  It includes a bit more risk, but in racing terms, it seeks to finish 1^st, vs. finish “high”. 

The style Rice has employed, however, has also been very consistent.  The pace has been frenetic, multiple ball handlers have pushed into the frontcourt, and shooters have been in position, ready and waiting for the drive-and-kick or swing passes.  He’ll send the ball over the top on fast breaks at first chance, and the substitutions have been predictable, bringing in fresh legs to meet the demands of massive oxygen uptake.

This week, however, highlighted a pit crew highly capable of fine-tuning, and even altering its attack, and this is what has caused me to give my “MVP” to the coaches.

The game against Cal Poly was the first example.  Playing time was re-arranged, and some of it was done in real time.  Cal Poly was ridiculously physical.  The Rebels then leaned on the leadership of Brice Massamba, who thrives in a physical scenario, and left Lopez sitting out most of the game, with an added benefit of protecting his recovering ankle. 

The Rebels, as usual this season, pushed the pace against Cal Poly where they could, and were quick to send passes deep before zone defense could set up. 

They weren’t as athletic as the Rebels, as most teams are not, and we exploited this fact, like every team so far, with success.

Then comes UNC.  My recruiting analysis in September identified the fact that the Tar Heels have 9 Top 100 recruits, the worst of which was 32^nd in the nation.   Their average Top Recruit was the 14^th best in the United States.  They are crazy good, and crazy deep!

So, now what do you do.  This may be the one team we’ll face that has a clear-cut “athletic” advantage.  They are taller and faster on the average.   That’s one problem.

Then, as the game developed, there was no doubt that the refs were equipped with some of the quickest whistles in the west.  This altered the variables for both coaches.  Anthony Marshall, who dictated the Rebel’s strategy early in the game, ended up with 3 fouls by half time, as did Massamba.

How did we adapt?

Think about the 2^nd half.  How many times did UNC press ahead for the fast break?  A lot, which yielded a turnover or two, and several trips to the line where they shot poorly, thank goodness. 

In the 52 points that were scored in the 2^nd half by the Rebels, how many times did UNLV press ahead in the same fashion, trying to beat UNC’s defense back?  NONE.  There were some long passes, and a few quick drives, but not one time did UNLV “go long” over the top looking for the quick bucket as it has done all season. 

This was calculated, and intentional.  The odds of accomplishing this feat against UNC were too low.

In previous games, the rebounder has often dribbled up after rebounds, intensely pushing tempo. 

But now, the combined point guard presence of Marshall and Bellfield on the floor was critical to success, so how do you keep Marshall on the floor with 3 fouls? 

Marshall is prone to “charging”, and Bellfield is an excellent pace setter, so in the second half, the backcourt rules changed completely.  The rebounder, instead of turning up-court, began looking for Bellfield in the backcourt, even if the rebounder was Marshall, and Bellfield MODIFIED THE PACE.

We were still in the frame of mind that we needed to use drives and create quick lateral movement in order to utilize the first open scorer, but Bellfield allowed everyone to “take their places” before employing offensive pressure.

Then, on UNC’s fast breaks, it was Thomas, Hawkins, or Lopez that were taking the chances and potentially drawing the fouls.  Marshall would normally find himself in that mix, but he was basically absent to the scenario in the 2^nd half.

As time wound down, UNC began to press.  In astonishingly sound fashion, the Rebels turned the press to their advantage.  Yes, UNC’s press did create a turnover at the end from a Moser in-bound pass, but overall, this team was supremely prepared to draw the double-team and pass long to midcourt.  This created a couple of “freebies” for the Rebels, including a wide-open Stanback dunk to spread the lead. 

The Maestros of the coaching staff were conducting their finest, albeit this is only Rice’s 7^th official game as a head coach.

As a Rebel racked up a foul, they’d sub out and another would sub back in.  The quick whistles finally landed Massamba and Moser on the bench with 5 fouls each, but not until the last seconds.  UNC would not benefit from their absence. 

I don’t think for a second that any of this occurred haphazardly.  It’s not that our players were not in supreme form – they were.  But in my mind, the coaches orchestrated this win.

MVP’s – Coaches Rice, Hutson, Augmon, and Schroyer.

Great Job!