Showing posts with label Jason Taylor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jason Taylor. Show all posts

Thursday, November 29, 2012

UNLV vs. UC Irvine - Disappearing Apturds



Highlights courtesy of mylvsports.com

Article by Jason Taylor

Let’s be frank - The Oregon game at the Thomas and Mack was packed solid by the Rebellion, and seemingly everybody else in town, but the game flat stunk.

For the minute, however, this fact is turning out to be a good thing, let’s hope.

Before we get to the “good thing”, let’s review.  To give perspective, we can move one game forward from the O game to the Iowa State game, and simply give measure to the crowd.  It was baffling to see that, suddenly, after one measly loss, fans disappeared.  It was a 5:00pm game on a Saturday night… Perfect!  Students can pick up their free tickets, pack the “Rebellion” sections, and still have plenty of time to hit the bars afterward.

Wrong.  I, mean - maybe they hit the bars… I dunno.  However, one thing is for sure - they didn’t fill the Rebellion sections up, or any other sections for that matter.  The T & M itself felt like a deflated whoopee cushion.  Ya… That bad. 

Before getting red-faced over fair weather fans, let’s examine why, possibly there was such a radical shift in fan energy over the course of one day, and one game.  While the reasons may be many, much of loss of enthusiasm could be described by APTRDS [Common name: Apturds] - Associative Post Traumatic Rebel Disappointment Syndrome.

While Apturds is still under investigation by the Board of Psychiatric Disorder Analysts as to whether it should be included in their official “Mental Disorder Guide”, some Rebel fans are, indeed, afflicted.

Sliver of Evidence:

Two years ago, the Rebels were off to a great start.  Hopes of healthy athletes, like Oscar Bellfield, Chace Stanback, Derrick Jasper, and Trevon Willis might deliver a long desired conference championship.  Then, came SDSU.  The Rebels went to Viejas Arena, jacked up 18 3’s, and made one - The Rebels lost by 6 points.  In the next meeting with SDSU, Rebel fans packed the Mack where the Rebels cranked out 15 more 3pt attempts and made 2, and lost again by 6 points.  Hopes of a conference championship were thereby extinguished.

The seeds of Apturds had been planted. 

Then, lessons learned… Right?  Play hard-nosed, inside-out basketball, and stop with the “jacking” fixation. So, when matched up against SDSU for the third time that season in the MWC Tournament UNLV found solid presence with Willis manning the “elbow”, and Massamba crashing to the basket.  Rebels banged and clawed their way back into a game where they were about 10 points down.  With 3 minutes left, fans then watched in awe as Stanback, Willis, and who knows who else began firing away from 3.  DJ Gay ended the game with a runner in the lane, walking away with a deserved, yet assuredly Rebel-fan-traumatic SDSU win. 

The seeds had produced a complete garden full of evidence indicating the exact nature of how to lose games, and symptoms of Apturds began:  Fans went home, never to return - until fairer weather.  Some became severely depressed; others became angry, referring to their superior foe as, “STDSU”.

With a background understanding, then, it’s easy to see how the Oregon game re-ignited the syndrome.  The Rebels attempted 30 - Yes, count them - 30 3-pointers.  Incredibly, Super-Duper-Surprisingly, the Rebels lost.

But wait… There’s more to the story.  The Rebels threw the ball away a lot (17 turnovers), which is a fairly new thing.  And then, on top of being too lazy to attack the basket, some seemed as though they thought contact with the ball caused the disappearance of all teammates.  The height of frustration was achieved when Katin Reinhardt was running wide-open, hands up on the weak side for an easy layup, but instead of receiving an easy pass, Bryce Dejean-Jones went for the glory, crashed into strong-side traffic, committing a charge.   The next basket was an Oregon 3 pointer.

The good news is, that was way, way back, in the distant past - two games ago.  The Rebels took a kick in the pants, now realize they are human, and are thankfully taking study.  The Oregon loss added merit to the Rebels’ season, hopefully.

In come the Anteaters of UC Irvine.  Now, Anteaters may not seem so intimidating, but they easily knocked a decent Nevada Wolfpack over by 14 points, took the pre-season #11 UCLA Bruins into overtime, only to lose by a single point, and then gave SMU a run for their money losing by only 5 points. 

The Anteaters seemed to have done their homework.  Oregon did a terrific job of running a stretched zone defense that provided a full court press, and they turned the Rebels over several times in a row.  Further, they dropped quickly, preventing expected fast break attempts from the Rebels.  Their zone defense caused the Rebels to settle: hence the 30 3-point attempts.  When the Rebels chose to attack, it was often with individual - rather that team - effort.  Oregon took several charges, albeit with the aid of some favorable calls, and prevented the Rebels from getting into a good flow.

Any good coach would look at what works, study film, and attempt to replicate.  So, the Anteaters attempted.  Little did they know that they would not be playing the team that played Oregon last week.  The Rebels that stepped on the floor Wednesday night were completely different.  As they threw the full-court zone press, the Rebels were patient, simply waiting for the double team to come, and threw the ball back and forth, crossing half court with ease.  Then, as they ran their zone defense, the Rebels had several lines of attack.  A favorite strategy was using Carlos Lopez-Sosa as a mid to high post receiver, who drew defenders, and then he quickly found the low post, making some great passes.  CLoSo ended up with 4 very nice assists, usually to other “bigs” - gotta’ love good interior passing!

Another strategy of attack gives segue to an overall key performance by Anthony Marshall.  While I may show bias to my pre-season predictions of AM assist “greatness”, his effort was undeniable, and admirable, ending with an “under-rated” 9 assists - I’ll explain in a moment.  Getting back to the idea of zone breaking, however, AM was especially solid and steady as a baseline receiver and distributor.  His threat to drive must be honored, and his strength is difficult to overcome, so he is able to hold ground until plays develop, and he is beginning to hit runners and shooters at their most deadly points - quietly critical.

The reason AM’s 9 assists are “under-rated”, is because he hit numerous players that had wide-open jumpers, but missed, and he fed several players in positions where the Anteaters had no other option but to foul, or give up the basket.  I saw an easy 14 assist game from our so called “non-point guard”.

AM has more work to do.  He hasn’t mastered the Kendall Marshall knack of hitting runners up ahead, and he’s still getting comfortable with timing, making the offense seem a bit stuttered at times, but the learning curve is present.  He’s a smart player who cares most about the team.  With AM, the chances are that the Rebels will get comfortable and hit their flow - and they will be seriously dangerous.

Anthony Bennett is proving more “beastly” than expected, adding another 19 points and 7 rebounds.  Importantly, many of his rebounds are coming at the offensive end where it used to seem like a miss for the Rebels was a turnover.  Not any more.  Quintrell, Moser, and Goodman add to the effect.  The Rebels have a legit chance of adding several put-backs per game - finally!  In fact, the Rebels had multiple offensive rebounds off of missed FREE THROWS against UCI.  Such a breath of fresh T&M air!

Moser’s motor is running.   Katin Reinhardt is proving a tremendous value.  Justin is even better, adding a confident offensive threat good for 8 to 10 points per game, and Savon Goodman is beginning to get more comfortable, keeping away from those baseline turnovers.  He had the back-slapping, “no you di’int” fast break dunk of the game, and 7 rebounds.

All in all, the UCI game was a great “practice” against a good team.  The impetuses of Apturds have disappeared, and Fans (you know who you are), the fair weather seems to be returning… You may re-take your seats.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

The annual prediction questions: Swami Reign



In what has become an annual tradition, myself and Jason Taylor kick around a couple of intriguing questions before the season starts. A fun way to anticipate the future, and to try and keep score later. Remember to go out and support the Runnin' Rebels this Wednesday for the exhibition game!!


Marshall will fill the major role at the point guard position.  How many minutes per game will he play?  Who will get the 2nd most minutes at point?  How will his season be viewed when it's over?  Does he have a shot at the NBA?

RR: I see Marshall running the point 26-32 minutes a game. For comparisons sake, in 2010-11 Oscar Bellfield played 33mpg, and 32mpg last year. Marshall played 32 mpg last season as a shooting / scoring point guard. The reason I believe it could dip as low as 26 (or lower) is because Coach Rice knows he ran his guys into the ground last season and will try to keep fresh legs, especially at the ultra important PG position. Plus, several blowouts could give more minutes to any of our other talented guards and keep is overall average lower. 

Anthony Marshall projects to be a PG at the next level, so he will be naturally measured against all other PGs that are draft eligible. He definitely could be NBA bound if he shows versatility, durability, and the X-factor - make others better. He has a much better shot if UNLV can go deep into the tournament, and his name gets thrown around a lot (hopefully because he's doing good things). Realistically, I could see Marshall taken in the second round. 

JasonDave Rice leans on leaders... I believe AM, therefore, will be UNLV's "anchor" player this year.  I see him playing 34 minutes per game for the first 10 games.  As the season progresses and teammates "catch up", I believe those minutes will reduce during non-competitive games, giving others a chance to begin building.  When all is said and done, I see him averaging about 32-33 minutes per game.  

Surprisingly to me, it looks like DeQuan Cook will get the second most minutes at point.  I figured he may redshirt, but now I'm not guessing that will happen.  He's already put a reported 14lbs on and is showing well.  The two others that may see minutes at the point, especially if we see injury to AM or DQ, are Katin Reinhardt and Justin Hawkins.  I would imagine Rice will trust JH more, solely due to experience.  KR will, however, be an important and exciting element to the team.

I predict Marshall will be 1st Team All Conference, he'll be a Top 3-4 scorer on the team, lead the MWC in assists, be 2nd in team steals, he'll be named as an All Conference defender, and yes... I believe the words "NBA" and "Anthony Marshall" will be a topic this season.  He has a shot, especially if he can show improvement on his jumper and a controlled pace at the point... albeit the odds may be slim.

Will there be any style-of-play differences between this year and last?

RR: With an extremely talented front court, the Rebels should be a shot blocking menace with enough physical guys to control the paint. Not taking anything away from Brice, Carlos, and Quintrell, but they didn't block out enough last year (I realize Carlos was injured and out a lot of the season). Interior defense with quick outlet passes should be a UNLV signature. Defense significantly lapsed during the season, and it seems much of the defensive discpline that Lon Kruger had instilled fell by the wayside. I can envision the Coaching staff being much more hard on the team for not defending like they are capable. Also, Bennett is such a threat any team who adds a guy like that is going to have a totally different feel - this should be exciting to watch. 

Jason:  The key indicators here are the "bigs".  At BYU, Coach Rice often pulled the "5" outside for open jumpers.  This was not the case at UNLV last year.  I've heard/seen some indications that he may be returning to the BYU style:  1) Birch came to hone his skills away from the basket, making him more marketable for the NBA - yet, it looks like he'll be slotted into the "5" at UNLV.  2)  Quintrell has had some practice minutes at the "4", giving him some experience away from the basket, even though he'll likely be filling most minutes at the "5", by my estimation.  3)  Carlos has been reported as shooting several 3's, and outside shots in practice games.  

I believe all of this points to a style that will look more like a two-power-forward scheme, rather the typical "4" and "5" arrangement we ran last year.

The rest of the game will remain much the same.  High intensity man-to-man defense, and pushing the ball using the 1-5 to bring it up.  Considering the talent of the players, and the added "length" and athleticism, I expect even more Runnin', Flyin' and Dunkin'.  

Who will the top scorers be this season?  Rebounders?  Shot blockers?  3 point shooters?  Assisters?  Thieves?

RR: Backwards to forwards, Thieves - should still be Hawkins provided he's given enough minutes. 3 point shooters, Reinhardt and Bennett may be in close competition for that stat, Shot blockers, between Birch and Goodman. Rebounders, between Moser and Goodman. 

Jason:  Last year, this one was much easier for me... I predicted Moser would lead in scoring and rebounding.  This year, I believe the leading scorer could be any one of 4 guys... Marshall, Dejean-Jones, Bennett, or Moser.  If I had to select one, I would say Bennett simply due to the fact that his size will help him create consistency at the basket (and he's a decent free throw shooter), where I find it slightly more likely each of the other guys will be a bit more inconsistent game to game, especially Dejean-Jones.

Rebounders - Bennett and Moser are my favorites to grab the most overall for the season, however, when Birch comes in, I believe he'll dominate the stat.  Marshall will grab a bunch, and Savon Goodman will make a rebounding impact in the minutes he's afforded.  Overall, this is a MUCH improved rebounding team.  I believe we'll lead the MWC by a decent margin.

Blockers - Khem Birch... No question.  I predict that Birch will lead the MWC in blocks per game, and lead in the OVERALL number of blocks on the season.  That's right.  He's going to miss the first half of the season, and I'm still sayin' he'll block more shots than anybody all year in the conference.  The guy has Joel Anthony's timing, but I think he can jump another 4-6 inches higher!  This guy will change games on this notion alone.  

3 Point Shooting - This one may surprise you a bit... I think J-Hawk is going to give a run at the Shooting Percentage title for the team this year.  Katin Reinhardt will be the most exciting shooter, but Justin will be more stable and reliable than in years past.  He's playing very confidently, and has added strength and control.  Others that could do well are Bennett, Moser, and BD-J.  Even Goodman has shown flashes in practice.  Carlos is hitting some as well, but he won't lead the stat.  Moser could definitely make the Highest Number of 3's though, just figuring the number of minutes he'll play, his propensity to shoot the 3, and the fact that he's moving from power to small forward this year.  

Assists - Anthony Marshall, IN BOLD.  As stated... I believe he'll lead the MWC, and I would go so far as to say that he will break a few assist records this year - maybe even the all time MWC single season record.  Crazy?  Maybe... but I was a little crazy when I picked Mike Moser as the MWC Newcomer of the Year when he previously averaged less than one point per game at UCLA.   Again, I think he's being underestimated and I'm stickin' with it... AM will break some assist records this year, will Lead the MWC in assists, and will be in the top 25 nationally.

Steals - Marshall, Moser and J-Hawk are all strong in this area.  However, due to the number of minutes, the fact that Moser will be up top more often on defense (guarding opposing small forwards vs. power forwards) where he get's most of his steals, I have to go with Moser.

What will the team's free throw percentage be this season?  Three point percentage?  Overall shooting percentage?

RR: Free throw percentage should get higher. I think I did an analysis last season that when Coach Rice arrived at BYU, FT percentage slowly increased over his tenure. FT percentage as a team last year was 67.6% - room for improvement. A safe bet will be 72%. Three point - I think the team won't be as reliant on it, so the percentage should increase. 38%, but attempts down. Overall field goal percentage, could be right around 50% with the inside play we should see. This could be very exciting basketball - I can't wait!

JasonOur free throw percentage was affected most by "who" took our free throws.  Our best FT shooters were Wallace, Stanback, and Bellfield.  The problem is that they were rarely fouled - they had a combined 109 attempts.  Marshall had 163 attempts alone.   Then, Massamba, Lopez and Thomas combined for 246 attempts, making only 59% of those.  So, our worst shooters took the lion's share of the shots... we ended up @ 67.6% from the line.  Not Good.

Unfortunately, this will likely change little for 2013.  Carlos and Quintrell will get fouled a lot, and then Birch.  None are good FT shooters on the average.  Then, expect AM and BD-J to get to the line a lot.  Marshall shot 71% last year, and Bryce shot 64% at USC.  Bennett will get to the line as well, and I believe he's good for mid 70's on a percentage basis, and Moser will get some shots, who was a 78% shooter last year.  Reinhardt may help, but he isn't going to be shooting a ton of free throws.  This all leads to me believe that if we improve from last year, we'll be lucky to crack 70%  My guess... 69%.

3 pointers.  Last year, we were at 36.4%.  I'm a little worried about Moser, Jones, and Marshall dragging the average down, but I am hoping Bennett, J-Hawk, and Reinhardt will pull numbers up.  Losing Chase hurts big time.  The biggest help may come as we should be able to better spread the floor and get more open shots.  Prediction 36%.

Field Goal percentage.  I see this team finishing better at the rim, and doing so more often.  Last year we finished at 45.7%.  This year, I predict 49.5%.

Which categories will UNLV lead in this year in the MWC?  

RR: The Runnin' Rebels should lead all categories except points allowed - that should belong to Air Force because of their plodding pace. Check that, we'll likely not lead FT % (air force again may take it). 

Jason: 

Lead:  Games won.  Rebounds.  Margin of win.  Assists to made baskets ratio.  Assists.  Highest average score.  Blocks.  Steals.  

Won't win:  Free throw and 3 point percentages, and Opponents' Scoring.  

Toss up:  Field Goal Percentage

When Birch becomes eligible, who will sit the most (Q, CLo, or Birch)?

RR: I think its really going to be a matchup decision. I want so badly for Carlos to be the guy he shows flashes he can be. He's got tricks, gimmicks, and suprizingly range. But I also want the same for Quintrell. Hopefully they all get decent minutes and its just a matchup decision. 

Jason: Frankly, I don't know, other than I'm sure it won't be Birch... his defense is way too good, and his offense isn't bad either.  

Q has lost weight and added strength.  He's motivated, and will be able to defend better.  Carlos is shooting well, even from the outside, and has better offensive skills than Q.  I believe they'll get playing time according to match-ups, so my prediction is that neither will be "out" for the rest of the season as Birch comes on.  

Who will be the biggest new surprise?

RR: Just because he hasn't had the hype of our other highly ranked or anticipated players, the biggest surprise will be Savon Goodman. This guy will end up being Mike Moser 2.0. 

Jason: Savon Goodman, hands down.  He was the afterthought as he came aboard.  People were paying attention to Bennett, Birch, and Reinhardt signings, but I'm tellin' ya now, we're going to love Savon Goodman.  This guy is a workhorse: he's strong, he doesn't give attitude, and he never stops.  I was a bit disappointed that J.J. O'Brien didn't come to UNLV, but Goodman is an even better choice.  Rebounds, hustle, dunks, and a soft touch at the rim... he fills a huge thirst for the UNLV faithful.  

Which Rebels from the current roster will make it to the NBA?  When?

RR: Of the Rebels who could potentially make it to the NBA someday, right now I'd put that list at Anthony Bennett, Mike Moser, Anthony Marshall, Katin Reinhardt, Khem Birch, Carlos Lopez-Sosa, and possibly Bryce Dejean Jones. That's clearly overly optimistic, as we aren't Kansas, Kentucky, or UNC. The only guaranteed league player is Anthony Bennett, and he'll be there next year unless he enjoys playing for UNLV more than making millions of dollars. 

Jason: This is an unbelievable question.  "None", is the usual answer.  It was amazing Joel Anthony went when he only played 18 minutes per game... fortunately, he found the perfect home in Miami.  

Bennett has a very high chance, and likely within the next 2 years.  Birch and Moser both have good shots at it, again, within the next 2 years.  I believe Marshall has a shot, but I'd put him in an "outside chance" category right now, but if he develops a consistent jumper this year, I'd give him better than a 50% shot.  He'll get exposure and people will be talking about him.  Katin Reinhardt has a chance too, but I think it's too early to make a guess on him.  This may sound like a stretch, but Goodman could end up cashing in down the road too.  

How many wins will UNLV rack up this year?

RR: I'm still content with my earlier prediction of 26-5 Link before the MWC tourament. 

Jason: This may be hopeful, but if I have to guess...  33.    

What will the average 2012-13 attendance be at the T&M?  Not including the MWC Tournament, how many sell outs will the T&M have?

RR: Attendance averaged 14025 at home last year. Season ticket sales are way up, and there is some decent home games to attend. I say average will be 16,200 which is impressive given capacity is around 18,500. There were only 3-4 sell outs last year (I think), lets call it 7-8 this year.

Jason: Last year, our schedule and dates just didn't favor a large jump.  We moved from 13,200 to 14,000.  This year, the jump will come.  First, there's the recruiting attention we've received nationally.  Then, over 10,000 season tickets have been sold.  Now, we are pre-season ranked for the first time since... who knows.  Also, the Rebellion is building, and we'll see it at new levels. 

Looking at the schedule...  Last year, our first home game on a Saturday didn't come until Jan 21st.   This year, we'll have 3 Saturday home games by Dec 1st, and 7 by Jan 12th.  Further, we'll have Oregon on a Friday night at 6, vs. last year when we played a big game against Cal at 2pm on a Friday, and we'll play Northern Iowa, who beat us on a last second shot in the tournament 2 years ago. and then went on to beat Kansas.  We'll want revenge.  2 more Saturday games will be against New Mexico and SDSU... Sell Outs.

Best guess for Average T&M attendance:  16,100.  It's going to be the hottest ticket in town.  

Sell out predictions:  Opener with NAU.  Oregon.  Cincinnati.  N Iowa.  Reno.  New Mexico.  SDSU.    Total:  7

Sunday, September 16, 2012

2012-13 Season Predictions II

Will this year's success equal or surpass last years?

Last weekend, Rebel Reign shared predictions for the season (win-loss). This week, Rebel Reign contributor Jason Taylor (RebelGrad95) shares his predictions for the season. Before we begin, an update on two of last year's senior players. Chace Stanback has landed himself playing professional basketball in France (picture of Stanback, good luck reading french), and Oscar Bellfield has landed on the New York Knick's preliminary roster (news release from Knicks). Congratulations guys, may wealth and success find you, and the UNLV brand spread world-wide. 

2012-13 Season Predictions by Jason Taylor:

Dixie State (exhibition) (1-0)
Northern Arizona (2-0)
Jacksonville State (3-0)

- The first 3 games (including the exhibition) will help us establish a wide average margin-of-win. We’ll win these games, hopefully by an average of 30 points.

Nov. 23 Oregon 
Nov. 24 Cincinnati or Iowa State Toss-up 
Nov. 28 UC Irvine 
Dec. 1 Hawaii 
Dec. 4 at Portland  
Dec. 9 at California 
Dec. 13 University of La Verne (D-III)
Dec. 17 at Texas-El Paso 
Dec. 19 Northern Iowa 
Dec. 22 Canisius 

- Then, we’ll face several good teams by the time we play Canisius.  I think it would be a stretch to think we’ll win all of them.  Oregon, Cincy, Northern Iowa (beat us in NCAA tournament 2 years ago), Cal, Portland… even Hawaii was tough to get past last year.  We’ll be fortunate to be (12-1) before the UNC Game.

Dec. 29 at North Carolina

- Do we have a legit chance to beat UNC… of course, but playing them “away” has to push the odds in their favor.  12-2.

Jan. 3 Chicago State 
Jan. 5 Cal State Bakersfield

- We’ll win the next 2 with home games with Chicago St and Cal St Bakersfield.  14-2.

Jan. 9 at New Mexico
Jan. 12 Air Force
Jan. 16 at San Diego State
Jan. 19 at Colorado State
Jan. 24 Wyoming
Jan. 29 UNR
Feb. 2 at Boise St.
Feb. 6 at Fresno St.
Feb. 9 New Mexico
Feb. 13 at Air Force
Feb. 16 San Diego St.
Feb. 20 Colorado St.
Feb. 23 at Wyoming
Mar. 2 at UNR
Mar. 6 Boise St.
Mar. 9 Fresno St.
- Then, we’ll have 16 Conference games.  In theory, and talent per talent, we should win out during conference play.  Then again, last year, we shouldn’t have lost almost the entire back half of conference road games either. 

- I have a big “if” statement that will determine how well we’ll do, and responsibility doesn't lie on the players.  IF Rice has learned how to better manage minutes and keep legs fresh, I predict we will go 13-3 in conference play.  This would leave us at 27-5 (26-5 throwing out the exhibition). 

- If he doesn’t, we’ll lose a few more road games again, and we’ll end up at 25-7. 

Overall, going beyond regular season, I predict a 30 win season because I think Rice will spread minutes better this year, and I think that by the end of the season our “young” kinks will have been largely worked out.  Therefore, I predict a tournament championship, which means 3 more wins. 

If we are 26-5, or 25-6 at MWC tournament start, that will put us at 28-29 wins. 

This year, while I understand the difficulties of the tournament, I believe the chances of winning 2 games are strong, putting us into the 30-win category (not including exhibition game). 

Can we win 4 more?  Yes, but the chances mount against us, of course.  However, how long has it been when serious fans can legitimately answer, “Yes” to that question? 

Go Rebels!

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Desert Reign: Impressions of UNLV’s Talent - Part I


By Jason Taylor
7-29-2012

(Part 2 will be released Saturday night)

I had a bout of RWS - Rebel Withdraw Syndrome - and  was unable to attend games recently in person, so I searched the net and found videos of several Desert Reign Pro-city League games on Rebel-Net.com.

Several Rebels joined the league this summer, and Rebel fans turned out in numbers.  The air conditioning system was broken in one game, but red clad fans completely filled the stands regardless of the near 100-degree indoor temps, and hung in to gain measure and give support to the new arrivals, and a few seniors.  That was a nice sight.  DaQuan Cook made a comment about how all these people were cheering as he and Savon Goodman walked into the gym, even though the fans had never even seen them play before.

I was able to watch games that included Anthony Marshall, Justin Hawkins, Khem Birch, Bryce Jones, Katin Reinhardt, DaQuan Cook, Demetris Morant, and Savon Goodman.

There were never more than 2 current Rebels on each team.

The competition was stout enough to gain perspective, I believe.  Although, of course, it is only a few games of loosely run scrimmages, so we obviously have to take that for what its worth in my analysis.  Several players rooted in the Las Vegas area were in attendance, including Darrington Hobson (of UNM, and NBA Bucks), Jamaal Smith (UNM grad), Billy White (SDSU grad), Pierre Jackson (Baylor), Romel Beck (UNLV grad), Marcus Lawrence (former UNLV point guard), and several overseas pro players.  

Here’s what struck me with each Rebel:

Anthony Marshall at Desert Reign
One of the strongest impressions I had was that there was one player that stood out consistently.  His strength, poise, occasional flash and explosiveness were gravitational - people knew who “that guy” was.  He positioned well, backed players down at will, played great defense, and made very few mistakes.  He even nutmegged a guy at center court.  I don’t think there would be any doubt, that if teams could be picked by the players - captain-style - that he would have been called right at the top.  Anthony Marshall was masterful.  He had over 30 points in one of the games I watched.  I’m really excited about seeing whether this level of control will carry into, and throughout the season.  Fingers crossed!


Then, add Justin Hawkins - more very solid play.  Justin seems to have hardened and strengthened his frame, and showed no hesitation what-so-ever on his shot, most of which, he made.  Drives to the basket, mid-range jumpers, and three pointers - he looked Good.  I’ve always said that he is a good three-point shooter when he steps into his shot - otherwise, not so much.  Justin seems to have progressed - he was hitting three’s against in-his-face defense, even hitting a few fall-aways.  On one telling play regarding added strength; he was below the basket and suddenly exploded straight up, slamming the rim down with a two-handed dunk.  “Hold on,” I said, hitting ‘rewind’.  “Holy mackerel.  Yep, that was Justin!”

Now, for the new guys:

The first game I watched included Savon Goodman and DaQuan Cook.  If you don’t watch anything else, watch this.  DaQuan Cook is number 6, and Savon Goodman is number 12 on the green team.

How about that, Rebel fans?

DaQuan Cook with Carmelo Anthony

So, DaQuan Cook - The game I saw with him was his first in Las Vegas.  He had just arrived in town a few days before and was just barely getting oriented.  He and Goodman came in off the bench.  The first impression as he stepped on to the court, was that this kid is going to have to spend a good bunch of his time running back and forth between the dorm buffet and the weight room.  He’s listed at something around 6’1” and 165lbs.  I’d call that fairly accurate - maybe even a touch heavy.  It’s hard to tell on video.  I am a little worried he’ll get pushed around, especially on defense.  On offense, he’s fun to watch; simply by the fact that you don’t know which way the ball is headed.  He can thread the needle, and take advantage of opposite direction breakdowns with some nice no-look passing.  Since this was his first game, he may have been a bit shy offensively.  He rarely looked to take it all the way to the hole himself, and didn’t take many jumpers, especially if he was well defended.  This made him a bit predictable at times.  If the opposing team had receivers covered, they could possibly gain a turnover because he might force a bad pass before taking it strong himself.  The jury is out on him, in my book.  He’s young, so even if he needs growth, he has plenty of time to develop into a weapon for UNLV.  Given the supporting cast, it’s very possible this kid could flourish as a true, pass-first point guard. 

For the rest of the new guys, come back Saturday!

Saturday, March 31, 2012

Last season's predictions - Revisited

UNLV predictions, revisited

On October 23, 2011, Jason Taylor and myself kicked around out predictions about what this season would be like. Let’s find out how we did, and what we didn’t account for happening that created deviations in those predictions. For clarity, the black is Jason's (his comes first too), the dark red is mine (after Jason's).

Given that the Rebels will win 20+ games again, what match-ups are toss-ups or losses?


Shortened up, here are the teams I mentioned.
Toss up – New Mexico    Wins – USC, and Cal    Losses – UNC, Wisconsin, Illinois
Worried about – UCSB    Overall guess at our record… 28-5

So, for what I mentioned... not too terrible.  We won and lost to New Mexico (toss up).  We beat USC and Cal, as predicted, and we lost to Wisconsin as predicted.  I was worried about UCSB… fortunately we squeaked out an overtime win where we held a 10 point lead with 2 minutes to go in regulation.  The two I got wrong… UNC and Illinois.  It was so nice to be so wrong on those!  UNC was #1 at the time, and Illinois was ranked #19, undefeated (if I remember correctly), and we played the Illini “away”.

My biggest blunders came in failing to mention so many other teams that, not only should I have been worried about, but I TOTALLY underestimated.  I thought the conference was going to be weaker, where I predicted only losing 2-3 games.  We lost 5.  SDSU… wow.  Great job Steve Fisher.  CSU… I thought losing Andy Ogide would put them at a huge disadvantage.  WRONG!  How about Wyoming?  Phenomenal season considering the preceding year and the loss of Amath M’Baye to Lon Kruger’s Sooners!  TCU, too.  They had a really strong home performance this year, even though we blew… what, a 20 pt lead or so?  MAN, that one got me.

We went 26-9 through all games.  In all fairness, I wasn’t including D II games, so apples to apples the “Actual” record was 24-9, and I had us at 28-5.  That’s four full games the “wrong” way.  It felt worse than 4, though.

Here’s how I called it
UNC – loss (they’re just too good and we’ve not had good luck at the Orleans) -Wrong
USC – win
UCSB – win
Wichita State – toss-up (loss)
Wisconsin – toss-up (loss)
Illinois – win (revenge)
Cal – toss-up, win
UNR – toss-up, win
SDSU – win, both times Wrong, only once
CSU – win, both times Wrong, only once
New Mexico – split series (home win, road loss)

Not too shabby on my part, what I didn’t count on (and nobody else did) was the extreme fortune and whatever the team was drinking the night we beat UNC at the Orleans. Amazing. But, on the negative, who would have guessed losing to Wyoming and TCU? Head scratchers, games that I chalked up as ‘given’. The big surprise to many was that San Diego State would be a formidable opponent, spending some time ahead of UNLV in the national rankings. Clearly, SDSU can recruit and Coach Fisher is one of the best out there.

UNLV finished conference play with a record of 26-7, not quite the 28-4 I had predicted, but still good enough for Coach Rice to be among the best new coaches in college basketball, not to mention one of the best regardless. The Rebels spent more time being nationally ranked than they had since 1992, at one point #11 in the nation. The major hurdle for the Rebels was the MWC, as a whole, was completely legit and brought effort, intensity, and a lot of luck when they played the Rebels. 

Will the Rebels actually run?

I said:  We'll be playing bigger and faster.  Coach Rice has stressed style of play since day 1, and his style "Runs"!

The reality, in my opinion:  Yes, we Ran… Right out of steam!  I think the reason we did so well early in the season truly had a lot to do with “legs”.  I think we lost our legs late in the season because we were tired, and I think the biggest mistake Rice made was leaving fresh legs, much too often, on the bench.  Kruger used more subs on the average, and he wasn’t trying to run a high-octane offense.  I hope Rice and staff will consider this over the summer.  Lopez, Thomas, Smith, and even Wallace could have added much more depth and helped preserve the starters.  I think some of those huge leads we gave up are indicators of this notion.

I said they would, that losing Willis and Jasper, and gaining Moser and Smith would make the team more athletic, and could better execute the Runnin’ offense. 

I was half right. The Rebels did run, but Smith was not the factor he was envisoned to be, not totally his fault – he was inserted into a high-octane team midway through the season and was unable to match what Oscar Bellfield brought to the table. Mike Moser on the other hand, was half-man half amazing for the first 75% of the season, and then a mere mortal the rest of the way. Changing systems takes time, Coach Rice increased the PPG dramatically in his first season, and he will continue to implement both his offense and defense more effectively when he has his handpicked guys running it, and more time to work it. 

Will this year's schedule be the RPI builder of years past?

I said:  The first half of the year will be an RPI builder, but the second half would be “fragile”.  
RPI of 20 most of the conference season.  I greatly underestimated the strength of the conference.

I said it was a mixed bag, and there was a serious gap between the quality opponents we faced and non-quality opponents in the nonconference schedule.

Mostly right on this – but I didn’t properly value the RPI. The opponents were either high quality or terrible, with no middle ground. The RPI, and the way the Rebels capitalized sent our RPI soaring and certainly helped with the consistant national ranking (that and beating UNC). This was Coach Kruger's schedule, 95% of it. Coach Kruger’s most genius move is putting together a schedule that creates 20+ win seasons and also boasts a great RPI at the end of the day. The man is most genius in this respect. Hopefully Coach Rice will keep a little of Coach Kruger’s magical RPI schedule building. 

Last year the average attendance at the T&M was one of the best on the west coast at 13253.  What will the average attendance be this year?

Due to a lack of Saturday games, I said:  We'll still be one of the best-attended basketball arenas on the west coast, but I think we'll maintain attendance numbers - until next year.  

Home attendance ended up at 13867.  I’d say that was a reasonably good prediction???  However, had I known that ticket prices for the Plaza level would increase so much, I may have been more skeptical.  Overall, the fan turnout was great.  We took some major strides in creating a better atmosphere this year, even coming up with a cool name for the student section:  The Rebellion.  The 20 ft “Mike Moser” was awesome!

I predicted 15,000, the real number was 13867. I totally agree with Jason Taylor’s assessment on why there was no boost. Frankly, he should be running their ticket sales / marketing department, he accurately predicted their failure, and the reasons why that failure occurred. 

Will Marshall be a better PG than Bellfield?

I said:  If Marshall can build his way into the NBA, the Point is the perfect position for him to do it from.  Try guarding him one-on-one and he'll end up cramming it down your throat with his speed, strength, and explosiveness.  Apply "help D", and he'll dish or kick.  

Bellfield is a very good "face-up" jump shooter, so I believe he'll actually benefit as well.

With that said, I don't think the switch means as much under Rice as it would have under Kruger.  Rice's offense will rely on multiple transition ball handlers, all the way up through the power forward position.  Guards, including Wallace, will immediately turn up court as they rebound, so Marshall will bring the ball up less often under Rice, I believe, than Bellfield brought it up under Kruger.

If I were asked the same question now, I’d say it depends on how you view the role of the point guard.  If it is to control pace, conserve a good assist to turnover ratio, and distribute the ball, I’d say Bellfield.  However, if you need a point that can force his will, then Marshall is the obvious choice.  I like them both, for different reasons.  I think having the power to use either style was a big plus for Rice.

Marshall would greatly increase his stock with a more consistent outside shot and better free throw shooting.  Bellfield was a very reliable guard, and played MUCH better than his high school recruiting assessment valued him at.  He will be missed.

I had predicted that he would be the same, but do it in a different way. Marshall is not a better point guard than Bellfield, main reason is turnovers. Offensively, Marshall was ahead of Bellfield, but that’s fine and good and they have a name for that – shooting guard. I don’t think that Marshall has the mentality to be a great point guard, but he is fantastic as a shooting guard, or in limited minutes as a point guard. I was wrong on this one. 

Which assistant coach are we likely to see standing up and being the most vocal during games?

I said:  My only guess is a long shot - Heath Schroyer.  He was a bit of a foot stomper as head coach at Wyoming, but who knows how he'll be as a non-alpha dog?  

I think this was right.  There were several times Schroyer was standing behind rice yelling out calls.  I think he was well behaved, but I’d say he was the most vocal.  Augmon – sometimes I wondered if his lips were glued shut!  Hutson – Reserved, but not bashful.  

I had predicted Hutson, but it turned out to be Jason’s pick – Heath Schroyer. The guy couldn’t help himself, and the way the Rebels sometimes played – I don’t blame him in the least. 

Whose game will improve the most over last season?

I said:  I'm going to cheat on this one a little bit and look at a transfer.  For comparison, since he sat out last year, I'm borrowing UCLA's stats from 2009-10.  My prediction:  Mike Moser WILL WIN this category, assuming he stays healthy.  He didn't get much playing time at UCLA... only 4 minutes per game.  He shot 20% from the field and made less than 10% of his 3's.  My prediction:  Moser will go from averaging less than 1 point per game for the Bruins, to leading the Rebels in rebounding and scoring for UNLV this year, and will compete for "MWC Newcomer of the Year" honors.

Crazy?  Maybe, but I'm stickin' with it!

Uh-hem…

Leading scorer for the Rebels?  Mike Moser.
Leading rebounder for the Rebels?  Mike Moser.
MWC Newcomer of the Year?  Mike Moser.

Ya Baby!  Cheater or not, I’m braggin’ about that one!  Nobody around the conference called Moser a pre-season MWC Award winner, or likely to be the best overall player for UNLV.  

As John Sandler would say:  SLAAAM, DUNK!

During the fan scrimmage, I saw a good 10-12 pts per game that you can’t take away from him.  He’s too long, energetic, and can hit free throws.  Rebounds… that was obvious.  After the scrimmage I told him I was looking at the MWC Newcomer of The Year.  He smiled and said, “I wish.”  Cool kid.

I picked Mashour, but he was never given the playing time to improve and has essentially been removed from garbage time duty due to to an incident mid-season. 


The clear most-improved candidate was Brice Massamba – he was everything we wanted him to be this season. I am really, truly, sorry to see the big man leaving.  I think Justin Hawkins also raised his game considerably, and had Massamba not done it as a starter, I might named Hawkins instead. 

Is bringing back ‘the shark’ the right thing to do moving forward? 

Is there any greater respect we could give to Tark?  Loved it!

I was cautiously optimistic about the shark. Now, I’ve totally jumped on the bandwagon. It makes us unique, it a a very good thing, and it pays homage. I love the shark, even more than I love Mozilla. Long live the shark. 


Wednesday, March 14, 2012

UNLV, The RPI, and NCAA Tournament Seeding

The Rebels and the Buffalos can both give “Thanks”
- By Jason Taylor

Every year there’s a lot of talk about which teams deserved what seed in the NCAA Tournament.  This year, UNLV fans feared falling to the normally relegated dreaded 8 or 9 seed. 
The 8 and 9 play each other in the tournament, and the winner of this pair moves on to play the #1 seed (assuming of course the 1 seed wins their first game).
It is actually better to be a 12 or 13 seed in theory (vs. and 8 or 9), because the highest possible seed you would meet in your first 2 games is a “4”. 

An 11 or 13 is better as well, because the highest you would play in the same scenario is a “3”.  This is exemplified in the UNLV (6) vs. Colorado (11) game.

The tension for UNLV fans over seeding is rooted in a couple of worries… 1) UNLV hasn’t seemed to get a fair shake from the Tournament Committee in recent years, 2) We had a terrible conference road record, and 3) We didn’t make it into the MWC championship game.
UNLV’s strengths were in its RPI ranking and in the non-conference schedule/record.  The bottom line is, we had a good overall record combined with the fact we beat the #1 team in the nation at the time, and a current #1 seed, UNC… Thank goodness!
The Rebels finished the season with an RPI ranking of 19th.  In theory, if the committee only used this mathematical computation to produce seeding, UNLV would have been a 5 seed (1-4 would be 1 seeds, 5-8 would be 2’s, etc).  So, it appears we were bumped out of the 5 spot, but were likely somewhat anchored by our non-conference record, and only slipped 1 seed. 
Colorado was somewhat the opposite.  They received an 11 seed even though their RPI is higher than any 11, 12, and 13th seeded teams except one, Montana (13 seed, RPI 74).  Mathematically, they should have been a 15 seed.  Their strength came from season-end, where they unexpectedly ran through the Pac 12 field to win their conference tournament. 
So, it’s apparent that the committee, contrary to popular opinion, does have subjective intelligence.  How much so, is certainly up for debate, which I’ll leave for you and the talk show.
Here, however, is information you can use in the discussion.  These are the tournament teams, placed in the order of seeding, with their respective RPI’s.  Have fun making your case, whatever it is!

SEED
RPI
SEED
RPI
SEED
RPI
SYRACUSE
1
1
CINCINNATI
6
42
CALIFORNIA
12
37
KENTUCKY
1
2
GONZAGA
7
25
VCU
12
38
MICH ST
1
3
ST MARYS
7
28
S FLORIDA
12
52
N CAROLINA
1
4
FLORIDA
7
30
OHIO
13
47
DUKE
2
5
N DAME
7
39
NEW MEX ST
13
59
KANSAS
2
6
MEMPHIS
8
16
DAVIDSON
13
63
OHIO ST
2
7
CREIGHTON
8
24
MONTANA
13
74
MISSOURI
2
10
IOWA ST
8
33
IONA
14
40
BAYLOR
3
8
KANSAS ST
8
45
S DAKOTA ST
14
43
MARQUETTE
3
9
SO. MISS
9
21
BYU
14
46
FLORIDA ST
3
11
ST LOUIS
9
31
BELMONT
14
58
GRGETWN
3
15
CONN
9
32
ST BNVNTRE
14
72
LOUISVILLE
4
13
ALABAMA
9
36
LOYOLA MD
15
78
MICHIGAN
4
14
XAVIER
10
41
LEHIGH
15
91
INDIANA
4
17
PURDUE
10
48
DETROIT
15
125
WISCONSIN
4
23
VIRGINIAL
10
53
NORFOLK ST
15
128
WICHITA ST
5
12
W VIRGINIA
10
57
LNG ISLAND
16
80
TEMPLE
5
18
COLRDO ST
11
29
UNC ASHVLE
16
104
VANDERBILT
5
20
TEXAS
11
49
LAMAR
16
108
NEW MEX
5
26
NC STATE
11
49
VERMONT
16
135
UNLV
6
19
COLORADO
11
61
MISS VALLEY
16
144
MURRAY ST
6
22
LNG BCH ST
12
34
WESTERN KY
16
189
SAN DGO ST
6
26
HARVARD
12
35