Rocky finish to the non-conference schedule - Season recap part 2

Following all the success and momentum built up over the first nine games, came a rough patch for last year’s Rebels.

Not counting the Anaheim classic, the first true road test was familiar foe Louisville, a team who at the time was 7-0 but hadn’t really played anyone of consequence yet, and hadn’t left the cushiness of playing at the KFC Yum! center. UNLV was their first real test, and unfortunately  Louisville passed the test. The game was fairly close through all but the five minutes of the second half, where Louisville pulled away. Willis and Bellfield did their best to keep it close, but Stanback had an uncharacteristic (up to this point) slump that game, shooting only 2-8 from the field.

Following the loss,( which was a bit shocking given how well the Rebels had played up to that point) UNLV came home to face UCSB. The Gauchos were at the time 4-3, but they’d been unfortunately potent when playing the Rebels, having beaten us in the last two meetings. Although Chace got his point production back, the entire team shot the ball like crap, capitalizing at only 29% from the field, vs. UCSB’s 50%. The Rebels first home loss of the season, while still ranked, came at the hands of those damn Gauchos. Let’s hope for some revenge this season.

Having unexpectedly lost to UCSB, the Rebels worked them selves into the mindset to beat  Southern Utah, at the time 3-8. Best statistical measure of the Rebels’ dominance that game- Points in the paint-SUU 20,LV 38. Points off turnovers-SUU 3,LV 22. Although it stopped the losing streak – beating SUU in our house was not a major accomplishment by Rebels standards.

Luck is a funny thing, and one of the luckiest things that could have happened to the Rebels happened last season when we traveled to Kansas to play #11 Kansas State. In a game few expected the Rebels to win (and the same team that dominated us at the Orleans the previous season), that luck came in the form of a suspension of two of K-State’s best players, Jacob Pullen and Kurtis Kelly (NCAA infraction for receiving impermissible benefits). At that point, most would have expected the Rebels not only to win, but win big (example: imagine right before we are to play SDSU last season Chace Stanback and Anthony Marshall are suspended – welcome to a slaughter) given the loss of their best weapons, and the shock of having lost them so close to game-time. UNLV did pull of the win, but only by 4 points. Still a great win, but come tournament time the ‘quality’ of the win would be diminished.  One of the main factors that prevented the Rebels from the newly anticipated landslide victory, was continued shooting woes (Rebs actually shot worse than Kansas State, 38.2% vs. 40.4%).

The Rebels came back home and then dominated lowly Central Michigan (3-9) by 26 points. While teetering in and out of the rankings, the Rebels finished the non-conference slate ranked #25. During the best times, the Rebels were ranked was #19, well behind both SDSU and BYU.

During this finish to the non-conference schedule, the Rebels were consistently inconsistent. When we were good, we were great. When we were not so good, we were terrible. The bottom fell out on the remarkable ability of the Rebels to play the frenetic defense as well as make teams pay with tenacious offense. Properly discounting what happened at Kansas State, this was not the place the Rebels wanted to be coming into the conference schedule, with the MWC as tough as it had ever been. First opponent of that schedule – BYU.

Summing up the non-conference slate, during the 9-0 run the Rebels average margin of victory was 18.2 points. UNLV was beating quality opponents in convincing fashion, both home and away. During the rocky finish, the Rebels’ shooting percentage was 41.3%. Looking back on it all now I would have to say the #19 ranking during the 9-0 run was a bit underrated, but we retained a top-25 ranking due to the potential that the Rebels could return to the dangerousness that possessed the team that won the Anaheim classic. Also, won and lost, we hung with Louisville as well as K-State who were also ranked teams.

Playing down to the competition  - ugly wins and ugly losses

Tournament time  - What effort was in Vegas, stayed in Vegas

Following those, comes the season preview

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In the wake of Coach Kruger: How his former teams performed after his departure

This website tries to go where the traditional media outlets don't. Here's my analysis of how the colleges Coach Kruger left performed in the three seasons following his departure.

Texas Pan American - with Kruger
1982-83 - 7-21
1983-84 - 13-14
1984-85 - 12-16
1985-86 - 20-8

Texas Pan-American Post-Kruger (Kevin Wall)
1986-87 - 16-12
1987-88 - 14-14
1988-89 - 15-13

Hard to say. You would really have to know Texas Pan-Am basketball to know whether the 85-86 season was an anomaly or not. But, what we're focused on here is that there was not a tremendous difference Post-Kruger (not a huge backslide). Kruger turned the program around (took 4 seasons) and Post-Kruger, the team was still comparatively prosperous.

Kansas State - with Kruger
1986-87 - 20-11 (NCAA 2nd round)
1987-88 - 25-9 (NCAA Elite Eight)
1988-89 - 19-11 (NCAA 1st round)
1989-90 - 17-15 (NCAA 1st round)

Kansas State - Post-Kruger (Dana Altman)
1990-91 - 13-15
1991-92 - 16-14
1992-93 - 19-11 (NCAA 1st round)

Kruger achieved remarkable success at K-State. They hadn't been to the tourney since 1981-82 prior to his arrival. There was a considerable drop off in winning once Kruger left to coach Florida. Although not reflected in the above statistics, in the post-Kruger era the Wildcats would only make the tournament twice in the 90's (losing both times in the first round) and then not make it again until 2007-08 when they hired Frank Martin.

Florida - with Kruger
1990-91 - 11-17
1991-92 - 19-14 (NIT Semis)
1992-93 - 16-12 (NIT 1st round)
1993-94 - 29-8 (NCAA Final Four)
1994-95 - 17-13 (NCAA 1st round)
1995-96 - 12-16

Florida - Post-Kruger (Billy Donovan)
1996-97 - 13-17
1997-98 - 14-15
1998-98 - 22-9 (NCAA Sweet Sixteen)

Florida improved with Kruger, he rebuilt a team that was mired in investigations and sanctions.  They achieved remarkable success - who goes from the NIT losing in the first round to going to the NCAA Final Four the next season? Talk about a Cinderella story. But, then they cooled off - they are cyclical that way. Also not reflected in the statistics is a few years prior to Kruger, the Gators reached the Elite Eight. Also not mentioned, but should be common knowledge to any sports fan is that Billy Donovan was given a lot of time and patience, and the Gators were a dominant force from 2000 to 2007. In 2006 and 2007 under Donovan, they won back-to-back NCAA championships. Kruger got them back on the right track, and was a good steward, but Donovan brought them to the promised land.

Illinois - with Kruger
1996-97 - 22-10 (NCAA 2nd round)
1997-98 - 23-10 (NCAA 2nd round)
1998-99 - 14-18
1999-00 - 22-10 (NCAA 2nd round)

Illinois - Post-Kruger (Bill Self)
2000-01 - 27-8 (NCAA Elite Eight)
2001-02 - 26-9 (NCAA Sweet Sixteen)
2002-03 - 25-7 (NCAA 2nd Round)

Lou Henson had a lot of success before Kruger's arrival, but the program had problems which led to his leaving. Kruger again righted the program, was a good steward and won a lot of games. He got them to the NCAA tournament 3-4 times. Post-Kruger, Self was a definite upgrade as he took the Illini further. Self left after his third season to coach Kansas. Self took Kansas to a championship in 2007-08 (right after Florida).

UNLV - with Kruger

2004-05 - 17-14 (NIT 2nd round)

2005-06 - 17-13

2006-07 - 30-7 (NCAA Sweet 16)

2007-08 - 27-8 (NCAA 2nd round)

2008-09 -  21-11 (NIT 1st round)

2009-10 - 25-9 (NCAA 1st round)

2010-11 - 24-9 (NCAA 1st round)

Before Kruger, nobody really had UNLV running with any measure of consistency or success since Jerry Tarkanian. Kruger fixed UNLV basketball, and getting to the Sweet 16 put UNLV back in the national conversation. NCAA tournament appearances in 3 of the last 4 last years have made UNLV a prominent basketball program again.

Kruger failed to repeat or better the success of 2006-07. Many feel that its due to his lack of skill as a recruiter, seeing many local products and Finlay prep players seek schools elsewhere - even other MWC schools. Some feel that his offensive mindset is considerably dwarfed by his defense. 

Looking at all of his coaching scenarios, you could liken his UNLV stay most closely to Florida. Hopefully, we land someone like Donovan who can bring us to the promised land again. Patience by everyone involved is the key, walking into a team and winning a championship rarely happens overnight. Kruger was an excellent coach, but he perhaps did hit a ceiling and hopefully better days lie ahead, as they did in Florida.