Roster Preview: 2012-13 Forwards

The Forward spot has been a place where the Rebels had limited depth, and now still have limited depth. Looking at 2011-12, the primary forwards were obviously Chace Stanback and Mike Moser. With Stanback graduating and Moser thankfully returning for what will likely be his final UNLV season (barring injury), the question is who will run alongside Moser? Several of the 'forwards' have previosly been penciled into the center spot by virtue of someone is needed there (Carlos Lopez, Quintrell Thomas and possibly Khem Birch) and have been previewed several weeks ago - but who is left to be the next Chace Stanback? Who will give some relief so that the guard heavy roster isn't outmatched by taller more physical forwards? Let's take a peek.

Mike Moser

Mike is a wildly talented and driven player who had much more ups than downs last year, but the teams success and demise rose and fell with his performance, by and large. Was there a game that was lost when Mike Moser played very well? Yes - that aborition at TCU where we lost 102-97 (Moser had 22 pts, 8 rebs) but by and large in the vast majority of the losses Moser was underperforming, as was the rest of the team. 

In his first season with the Rebels, he had to deal with sudden extreme expectations having been named as a Naismith Player of  the Year Candidate very early on, having to deal with injuries, and then having his shot fall off as the season progressed. This is a lot for anyone to deal with, especially someone who is new to the system, and playing for a coach who wasn't the one who recruited you. All in all, Mike Moser's Junior year should be one of high expectations - as he's all but a lock to play in the NBA provided he shores up a few shortcomings, and the Rebels perform well. 

What Moser does well - He is tall, athletic, and hard to guard. He has an interesting set of tools in his toolbox, being that he can block shots, he can easily dunk or catch the lob for the ally opp. He can also steal and defend as well as anyone - and of course, we have the rebounding. As a solid double digit scorer as well as rebounder, he is the heart and soul of the Rebels. Coach Rice had said that the Runnin' offense is successful when there's high pressure defense, and rebounding so that a fast break can take place off of a missed shot. That's Moser's bread and butter. Ken Pomeroy made an interesting observation mid-season, stating essentially that Moser was a statistical anomaly given his offensive rebounding prowess and three point shooting percentage. Link This could be chalked up as a good thing or bad thing. As a good - to make an easy, popular reference, Dirk Nowitski is 6'11", is often the tallest guy on the court, yet he can shoot the three like a guard. For the same reason that Nowitski is a rare player, a guy like Moser who can pull down boards like nobody's business isn't presumed to normally have the ability to shoot a three pointer with much consistancy. Why? Because great rebounders are normally taller players, and taller players (like Dirk) don't normally shoot the three well (or free throws for that matter). Moser is a great player, and what's great about the Rebels is even though Moser is this, that and the other kind of awesome - you don't expect him to be the Rebels leading scorer that frequently. That's because our roster is still stockplied with great players, even more so than last year. 

What Moser doesn't do well - he's still not as bulky as other dominant power forwards who project well to rebound well in the NBA. Easy example - Drew Gordon (UNM) has the body necessary to occupy space, and not give ground to other forwards. Mike Moser has upper body muscle, but he lacks bulk in the hips and legs especially that may have contributed to his fatigue later in the season. Getting back to the statistical anomoly that Ken Pomeroy pointed out, the bad side of that is it shows that Moser may have been too comfortable shooting the three pointer. No secret, UNLV over Coach Krueger's tenure has been a team in love with the long ball, and the 'streak' has been somewhat of a constant reminder of the importance of shooting the three - but the team's leading rebounder should maybe shoot a whole lot more layups and short range higher percentage jumpers. Example, Mike Moser's three point percentage was 33%, he made 44 of 133 attempts. Total field goal percentage was 45% he made 184 of 409 attempts. Subtract out his three point shooting, and we get a 2 point percentage of nearly 51% . His three point attempts accounted for 32.5% of his shot selection. Clearly, three pointers are worth more than two pointers, but making only 1 of 3  from deep versus 1 of 2 from within the line potentially means he could have been a more effective player - less reliant on the three. My evaluation of what Mike needs to do to get better and become more complete, is to hit the weight room and build more lower body muscle, still maintain his quickness, and build on his short to mid range game. If Mike does improve like he's capable of, he is a lottery pick. 

Demetris Morant

The Bishop Gorman incoming freshman has a daunting decision ahead of him - burn a redshirt year or try to crack the rotation. The general evaluation of Morant is that he is a hyper athletic player who has tons of above-the-rim ability, is a one man block party, but who's offensive game is under developed. This carries slight risk for the Rebels, as improving under the tutelage of Dave Rice means building an offensive repertoire. Weighing heavily on whether to take a red shirt year depends largely on minutes available now, and whether dipping his toe in the water right away and potentially not being as successful as possible could mess with his confidence. Time and circumstance will tell on that point. The other similarly tall players who he may compete for minutes with, are the aforementioned Mike Moser, Quintrell Thomas, Khem Birch, Carlos Lopez, and Bryce Jones - who is a tallish tweener guard at 6'5" (Michael Jordan was also a guard, and 6'5"). The other big question is whether he'll be playing the 4 or 5? Throughout his stay at Bishop Gorman Morant was put in the center position. As a center, he's undersized - but UNLV has a history of success with undersized centers (Lou Amundson, Joel Anthony). My gut reaction is that he will take the redshirt, and then breakthrough better when Quintrell Thomas has graduated and Mike Moser has left for the NBA. 

Bryce Jones

Mr. Competetive, but also Mr. Misunderstood - he's the USC transfer who has waited out his redshirt year and is poised to make a big spash on the court this year. I'm mentioning him in the 'forwards' category because my take on the rotation (guard heavy) would likely having him match-up with a forward, and at his height he would be capable of guarding a forward up to perhaps 6'8". The line on Bryce is that he sometimes has been the best player on the court in many practices last year - no small feat given how good the team was through the majority of last year. The same complement was paid to a man by the name of Mike Moser - and look how good that turned out. Bryce Jones left USC because of playing time, and an altercation with another teammate. With some temperance on his live or die playing attitude, he will either push others to succeed, or be toxic to the chemistry of  the team. My thoughts are that the coaching staff assembled have enough experience and knowledge to be able to gauge his + or - , and will adjust based on that. Yes, we have a history of transfers, but we also kick malcontents to the curb - see Emmanuel Adeife. 

For Bryce to be a successful player, everyone needs to wipe the slate clean, recognize who he is, what he's been through, and what occurred and brings him to the Rebels. Then, purely evaluate him based on what occurs while he wears the Scarlet and Gray. Bryce Jones has the ability to be a special player, a scoring powerhouse, and a confident give-it-all-you got baller, a complete player. He just needs to have the maturity to work within Coach Rice's offense, be unselfish when someone has a better shot than he does, and to celebrate his teammates as much as he can. The offensive load left by Chace Stanback must be picked up by someone - and Bryce and Khem Birch are the most likely candidates to handle the task. 

(Want to know where Carlos Lopez, Quintell Thomas, and Khem Birch were discussed? Click here)

Roster preview: 2012-13 Centers

This is the first in a three part series about next year’s roster.

This past season the center spot has evolved with the three returning guys, Brice Massamba, Carlos Lopez, and Quintrell Thomas assuming different roles.

Massamba earned the well deserved trust of Coach Rice, playing harder, smarter, and scoring more than he had under any of  his previous years with Coach Kruger.
Carlos Lopez had a decent season, but the breakout that everyone was anticipating given his flashy moves and universal fan-favorite status among the faithful didn’t materialize due to injuries and illnesses.
Quintrell Thomas was used more sporadically than in the previous years, and was at times very good, and at times a DNP on the stat sheet.

In the coming year, we say goodbye to Brice, and hello Khem Birch, and possibly and Matt Willms. Lets breakdown who’s returning, who may be here, and what to expect.


Carlos Lopez
6’11” 215 pounds and a lot of talent, as well as heart. Carlos Lopez has been an effective big man for the Rebels since he finished his freshman redshirt year. Regarding talent, he has a repertoire that includes fake passes, fancy footwork, a short-to-mid range game - and he brings instant energy when inserted. Nearly a 7 footer, Carlos is also listed as a forward, and throughout the season was played as such by Coach Rice. Not sure whether the change was inspired by the Coach, or by Carlos, but due to the illness and injuries we didn’t get to see enough Carlos to judge whether a move to forward to play along-side another big man was a good strategy, especially in the uptempo Runnin' offense.

Next year I see Carlos either sticking with the center position due to the lack of  experienced alternatives, or Coach Rice playing a modified lineup where the best matched player will defend the opposing team’s center, while offensively the team runs a 3 forward 2 guard lineup, or perhaps at times a 2 forward 3 guard lineup. Regardless of Carlos’s position, I do see it as a breakout season for him. There will be a lot of slack to pick up regarding losing Brice’s numbers, and areas that Carlos can show improvement. For example, Carlos can be a great playmaker for the Rebels – especially since several other players on the floor are likely to draw the double team because of the reputation for offensive potency. Carlos is a good shooter, and for a big man 63% from the field is respectable. But, last season he only had 95 field goal attempts. In contrast, Massamba had 135, and Mike Moser had 409. With his talent, heart, and creativity he has to have some first option plays drawn up for him. His other area of improvement has to be free throw shooting – a traditional sore spot for big men, but 61% isn’t cutting it. Closer to 75% should be his goal this year. As for positives, he’s already a very effective shot blocker, as well as a ball thief. Dependant on the role Khem Birch assumes, I see Carlos Lopez as a very good option for starting center. If not a starter, bringing him off the bench with other energy people makes for a great pace-changer.


Quintrell Thomas
6’8” 245 pounds, he feels the game, and is sometimes the difference maker for the Rebels. The difference from his role with Coach Kruger, is under Coach Kruger he was used in rotating fashion with Brice and Carlos, basically someone would occupy the space until they racked up 1 foul, then the next guy would go in, and so on. This was extremely frustrating to watch, and must have been excruciating to be a part of. The question is, was it better to play in a way where it was difficult to get into the rhythm of the game because of constantly rotating in and out, or playing a bunch in some games and barely at all in others. Coach Rice saw Quintrell as someone who would have match-up problems with the opposing team’s centers, and for that reason he was not played in several games. No doubt about it, Thomas is small to be playing center at 6’8”, but I assume he knew that in transferring from Kansas. Although the roster lists him as a ‘forward’ he really hasn’t occupied that position for the Rebels.  His main physical attribute for playing the position is his physical size – he can take up space, and has the mass not to be pushed off the block. In the last two seasons we’ve seen flashes of great play by Quintrell Thomas, but this past season really calls into question the role Coach Rice has in mind for him in his final season.

Because of the size issue, unless Thomas is clearly besting all of the other candidates in practice and in Canada, I don’t see him being the starter. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that he’ll be at his most effective against an opposing player who is 6’10” and shorter.  Both his shooting percentage and free throw percentage ranked among worst at the center position, but he was a more effective shot blocker than Lopez and Massamba (had double what Massamba had, and played half the minutes. Unfortunately for him with all the issues with his foul trouble last season – that problem has been solved, but his effectiveness has diminished, 6.7 ppg in 2010-11, now 4.4 in 2011-12. In the off season, his hands need to improve – if that’s possible. He has had struggles with shooting and rebounding because the basketball does not hold tight in his hands, and sometimes falls out or gets shot poorly. This may be an issue that may never be remedied, but this is his last collegiate season and if he wants to keep playing basketball professionally, these issues need to be overcome. I really want to see Quintrell Thomas have a breakout senior year – much like Brice Massamba did.


Khem Birch
6’9” 220 pounds, Khem Birch is a transfer from the University of Pittsburgh, and a former McDonald's All-American. He will not be eligible to play until after the fall semester, the same way that Reggie Smith was not eligible until this past spring term (or until fall grades were posted). It will be interesting to see how things change once he is inserted into the lineup and ready to play. Clearly, with his basketball pedigree and accolades – he can play. Luckily, if he is as good as his reputations predicts him to be, by virtue of his transfer situation we’ll have at least a year and a half of him playing for us (nobody is going to draft a guy based upon a semesters worth of college ball – unless we go final four and he’s the reason why).

Khem is another guy who would be slightly undersized at the center position. One of the reasons Khem transferred away from Pitt among other issues, was that he did not want to play center. Likely reason behind that – he knows he would not translate as a NBA center, he would be a power forward – which is a well founded conclusion. With someone who specifically did not want to do something, it will be extremely important for Coach Rice not to play him at center, and cause him to disengage because of it. If Birch’s presence in the spring lineup changes anything dramatically, it will likely be the 3F2G, or 2F3G lineup alluded to earlier. What will also be interesting to watch is whether he becomes a starter, even though he hasn’t  played in the fall. I highly doubt it, unless the Rebels have an uncharacteristically poor season up to that point. Great things are expected from this unexpected player, and he may be the gift that keeps on giving if he is able to solidify Anthony Bennett’s presence on the Rebels’ roster.

What’s exciting about Birch, is that he’s shown himself to be a player capable of double-doubles, as well as averaging nearly 2 blocks a game. With an inside presence like that, our rebounding woes should be cured, as well as the paint held much more sacred. Hopefully, no more guards running through the lane like a hot knife through butter. It will be as interesting as anything to see how Khem Birch changes the Rebels midway through next season.


Bryan Glenn
6’11 215 pounds – a lucky find to get a local player who in a non-scholarship capacity fit the bill as a tall center on the scout team. Chances are, unless you’ve been to practices you’ve not seen him play. I’ve not been – so I haven’t seen him play. The fact that Coach Rice hasn’t seen his way to play Bryan Glenn, even in garbage time, shows he has a lot of way to go to crack the lineup. But, one can always hope that he somehow someway becomes a viable center candidate because of his sheer size and all of  the great experience he’s getting playing as the opposing team against the nationally ranked Runnin' Rebels. Even if  that’s a pipe dream, we are still more than happy to have the services of Mr. Glenn helping the Rebels to be great. Thank you Bryan Glenn.


Matt Willms
6’11” 210 pounds, it seems fitting to get another big man from Findlay Prep to replace the outgoing Brice Massamba. According to information online, UNLV is in the running, as well as Providence, Long Beach State, and Marquette. He’s a true center, but has a nice complementary skill set that can cause the defense to respect him outside of the restricted area. From what I’ve seen on mix-tapes, he can follow the action and swoop in to dunk the ball, but he can also stoke a three, at least from high school distance. The biggest knock on Willms, is that he’s rail thin at only 210 (up 10 pounds from the previous season). The facts are that he’s a legit prospect to be a very good center, and UNLV will someday soon be devoid of true centers. Provided everything works out and there are no better alternatives, this should work out. Should the Rebels take Matt Willms, I fully expect him to redshirt his first year due to the current depth at the center position, plus time to mature and get better. Go get Willms!

The push for ‘two-bigs’ meets the push for uptempo

   

The 2010-11 season saw freshman Carlos Lopez, who redshirted his first year and transfer Quintrell Thomas, who sat per NCAA transfer rules, join big man Brice Massamba in UNLV’s pool of big-men. Almost instantaneously, many of the fans began to ask, ‘when is Coach Kruger going to play 2 big men at once?’ Coach Kruger normally only played one of these guys at a time, using them in short bursts, especially Massamba and Lopez. Thomas gained more minutes when he overcame his propensity to commit fouls, which thankfully was over by before the conference schedule started. Nonetheless, despite the Rebels success (or because of lack of success dependant on your perspective) all year the same question, when are they going to play two bigs at once? A lot has changed in the off-season, let’s examine if this will be a possibility under Coach Rice.

Coach Dave Rice’s stated mission is to win basketball games, and do so by playing up-tempo Runnin’ Rebels basketball such as the style made famous under Coach Tarkanian. Does having two big men in your starting lineup make sense in an up-tempo game?

NBA examples

Some of the most obvious examples of the two-bigs scenario come from former NBA teams. The Duncan-Robinson era Spurs are one of the successful – but they didn’t win by playing up-tempo basketball, they did it by shutting down the paint, and relentless defense. In their seasons together, the team never cracked the top-ten in points-per-game scored, but they did hover around #1 in least points allowed.

An earlier example of the two-bigs or “twin towers” as they were more commonly referred to pre-9/11, was Hakeem Olajuwon and Ralph Sampson together on the Houston Rockets. They collaborated from 1985-88 and produced deep pushes into the post-season, they also did so by having respectable middle-of-the-pack team points per game levels.

Bill Cartwright and Patrick Ewing pulled off the duo in 1986-88, but like the Spurs had back-of-the-pack offensive production, yet some success. No surprise, Knicks basketball has remained slow until D’antoni took the helm, but now the defense sucks so they continue to lose.

As seen by the professional level, two bigs can be seen as an asset and quite effective – if the defense makes up for the lack of offense. With few exceptions such as Shaq and Dirk Nowitzki, the guy playing center normally does not account of the bulk of points. If you are essentially playing two centers, that puts the scoring burden more on the three perimeter players. Granted, having two big guys in the lane does shut down the paint, but unless they are especially good offensively, nobody is doubling them and they aren’t really opening up much for the others. Normally, the bigger the player the slower they are. Coaches also want their centers to put on muscle and not be stick figures so they can bang in the post and rebound, that tends to slow them down ever further. This does not normally bode well for fast-break basketball.

UNLV

UNLV’s three bigs are Carlos Lopez, Brice Massamba, and Quintrell Thomas. Thomas is actually only 6’8, so he is more of a power-forward sized and type player who has volunteered to play starting center. The good thing is that at 6’8” he has a better chance of being able to run up and down the floor. Playing Thomas along side Lopez or Massamba is a possibility, but that would put Thomas filling the roll of a power-forward, which right now, may be not the most comfortable for him. Playing Lopez and Massamba together would be a disaster, that would slow things down to a Utah Ute’s pace and put a tremendous scoring burden on the other three.

My take on it, is although UNLV has three big-men on their bench, it is unlikely that Coach Rice would play two of them together at once. Playing two together runs contrary to his style of play. The only scenario under which I see Coach Rice doing it, would be Lopez and Thomas together, if our team is being severely beaten by the other teams offense and we need to employ a gimmick defense.

Otherwise, we will likely see these three players swapped out more consistently, as they will be tired quickly under the fast-break style. In fact, look for Coach to go deeper into the roster on every position on a regular basis, running all the time will wear out even the best conditioned player.

Once Coach Rice’s brand of basketball is seen and proves successful, nobody should be asking about two bigs again.

Update: 2011-12 Schedule page updated
New polls posted
Oscar Bellfield's twitter feed located: http://twitter.com/#!/odyebeeisback