Post-Holiday Points: UNLV takes Runnin' to Chapel Hill

Versus Canisius: The Runnin' Rebels were the Defendin'  Rebels beating a much improved Canisius team 89-74. If the road game against UTEP was Khem Birch's debut, this would have been his highlight reel introduction. 6 blocks, are you kidding? Of course, anyone would have guess that was possible given the comments Quintrell Thomas had made about respecting Birch's swatting abilities, combined with the many plays where he all but had a block but someone else fouled the player just before the block. Major credit as usual goes to Anthony Bennnett, who when on the court had the Rebels comfortably ahead, and seemingly not-so-much when off the court. Justin Hawkins had 3 blocks himself, among providing valuable point production. Further worth noting, is Katin Reinhardt made his living this game not at the three point line, but by driving to the hoop - something he hasn't done a ton of since high school. It was efficient and well played basketball, and came at a much higher percentage than the three attempts. Katin realizes that his 3 ball just isn't falling at the click he wants, so he's decided to change his game a bit - bravo!

Trending Rankings: The trending stories are that the MWC, who has often had 3 teams in the rankings (UNLV, New Mexico, and SDSU in ever changing order) now only has two. New Mexico dropped a home game to a South Dakota State team who had just driven 1100 miles in a bus to get to Albuquerque because their flight got canceled. This forced a lot of voters to rethink the power of New Mexico, and pushed them out of the top-25 completely. UNLV now ranks 20/17 in the polls. Foe SDSU is likely to push even higher as suffered another loss but took it to the wire against #3 Arizona (67-68) in the Hawaii classic.

Something to prove: Although basketball games shouldn't be thought of psychologically  unless its to one teams advantage, people with too much time on their hands (like me) start to think about things. UNC has a lot of advantages coming into this Saturday's game, even though they are not a ranked team anymore. #1 Revenge - any team who was bested last season in the fashion the Rebels did would want Revenge #2 Nothing to lose - with no ranking to lose, UNC can play loose, where as UNLV would likely move down in the rankings  if we lost to UNC, even though nobody has beaten them at home all season. #3

Injuries: With Mike Moser doing better, but still a few weeks away from playing, other notable injuries occurred during the Canisius game that could have some impact on the UNC game. Savon Goodman suffered a quad injury during the game that limited his playing time to 3 minutes. Anthony Marshall was limping considerably in the second half of the game. And perhaps more seriously  Bryce Dejean-Jones took a hard fall on an offensive foul that left him dazed with a cut on the side of his head. With the holiday layoff being just the right kind of healing the Rebels need facing their toughest foe yet, all hope is that everyone rests and heals up so we aren't beaten by lack of depth.

Depth: With the emergence of Khem Birch, there is a lot of depth issue the Rebels can play with. Right now I'd have to say (with Moser Injured) this is the best team they can put on the court:

Center: Khem Birch
Forward: Bryce Dejean-Jones
Forward: Anthony Bennett
Guard: Anthony Marshall
Guard: Justin Hawkins

Next in line at each major position:
Center: Quintrell Thomas
Forward: Savon Goodman
Guard: Katin Reinhardt

With Moser back - things get pretty interesting. Likely the best thing to do regardless of position is to attempt to play our best players no more than 25 minutes a game, and have more-than-capable backups play the remaining 15. This will keep legs fresh and defense intense throughout the rest of non-conference, and then the difficult conference schedule.

Happy Holidays! Looking for a little holiday magic for an inspired late-December game in North Carolina! Go Runnin' Rebels!

Strength of schedule

Strength of schedule?

Many have figured out the layout of the 2011-2012 non-conference schedule, and we already know we’re playing a smaller field in the MWC this year, obviously one game home and one away, so the immediate impression is that this is a weak schedule, weaker that the schedules UNLV had lined up the past few years.

Why is it weak?

If you look at the schedule (feel free to click on the 2011-12 schedule tab to see the full nonconference schedule). We aren't playing a lot of great teams next year, only four made the tournament and SDSU isn't going to be good next year. To assess the future difficulty in playing an opponent, there are three main factors. 1) Quality of team; 2) Location of game; 3) Date in schedule playing them. There are other factors that could be considered, such as win streak, matchups, etc, but its far too early to look to those factors. We’ll look at those three factors for now when assessing this schedule.

Lets group the non-conference games into categories:

Ultra-Marquee

North Carolina

Wisconsin

Without question, when people think of UNC they think basketball, they think national championships, and they think Michael Jordan. UNC is a perennial powerhouse that easily scoops up McDonalds All-Americans on a regular basis. Wisconsin is more known for football, but have been a steady tournament making team for a good while and any win against Wisconsin is considered a great boost to the tournament resume.

UNC has not released its schedule yet, but by the same time last year they had five  games under their belt – enough time to make adjustments about what works and what doesn’t, additionally enough time to scout the Runnin’ Rebels to study matchups, defense, and offensive strategy. What makes both of these matchups that much harder is that we face Wisconsin on their home court, and UNC at the Orleans.  The UNC game at the Orleans (provided we get them in the draw), has historically not been a good venue for the Rebels. UNLV was demolished two seasons ago by Kansas State there, and nearly gave away a victory last season against Boise State. UNLV’s fans have not attended Orleans’ games as well as they perhaps should – insulted that the games aren’t included in their season ticket packages or, in this case, they’ll be forced to pony up for an expensive package to watch the Rebels. UNC has a good traveling crowd, and expect them to take full advantage of a trip to Vegas. To top things off, TV coverage of games at the Orleans has been spotty, let’s hope a ultra-premium opponent like UNC will fix that wagon. It will be difficult to beat the Tar Heels unless they play terrible and we play outstanding basketball.

For whatever reason, we’ve had Wisconsin’s number for awhile and have regularly beat them in tough games, our guys should use that confidence to our advantage but not let it go to our heads. A win against Wisconsin on their floor would do wonders come tournament time. We face Wisconsin on 12/10, plenty of time for their team to find a rhythm and study the new-look Rebels, so they are definitely not to be taken lightly.

Marquee

University of Nevada Reno

University of Southern California

University of California Santa Barbara

Illinois

University of California
Wichita State

University of New Mexico

Colorado State

For a team who is seeking to be better than the annual tournament appearance and maintain a top-25 ranking, these marquee games become games where we must win 3/4ths of them to be taken seriously. UNR hasn’t been good in a few years, but all indications is they are rebuilding and will be a good team soon, if not this coming season. It’s still our in-state rival, but it’s a home game this year so that’s a plus.

USC is always a big name, but has been underachieving for awhile. Don’t count on our pick up of Bryce Jones (who won’t be eligible this year) to put a thorn in their side, but hopefully he can let our coaching staff know about their weaknesses.

UCSB has caused headaches for Lon Kruger’s Rebels  for awhile, let’s hope a regime change will rectify our spotty record against the Gauchos.

Illinois should be a game that every player who was a member of last year’s squad should circle. They flat-out embarrassed the Rebels in the tournament in a game most picked the Rebels to win. Revenge should be a primary motivator, but they also could be slightly easier to take on, losing McCamey and Davis to graduation.

Cal has been mediocre as of recent, but they are still a big name – that’s why it’s a marquee game.

Wichita State is probably a team most don't know much about, but they just finished this past season going 29-8 and won the N.I.T. beating Alabama 66-57. They will be a difficult foe who we have to face on the road if they maintain or build on their success of this past season.

The Lobos are only getting better, and they will be a tough team this season. They are the odds-on favorite to challenge UNLV for the MWC title this year. We have to play them once in The Pit, so that’s never fun. Likely we’ll spit the series.

The Rams keep getting better under Tim Miles, and they likely will be slightly better next season than they were this season. Keep in mind, they did embarrass us at the T&M, so we’ll have to make sure and dominate them home and away this year.  

Filler

Washburn

Grand Canyon

Morgan State

Cal Poly

UTEP

University of Louisiana-Monroe

University of Central Arkansas

Hawaii

Cal State Bakersfield

Wyoming

San Diego State

Air Force

TCU
Boise State

Not much needs to be said about the filler teams - they are filler teams. SDSU will not have the name recognition because the vast majority of the team that carried them to the sweet 16 last year is gone. Steve Fisher is still a great coach, but the Rebels should easily destroy them, especially with the knowledge of Justin Hutson on our sidelines. UNLV must win every game we have against these bottom dwellers for us to have a legitimate shot at an at large bid. Failure is not an option.

What about the TBAs?

There are two games yet to be scheduled, December 7 and January 7. It would take a miracle to schedule another ultra-marquee or marquee opponent for either of those spots, those types of teams likely already have their schedules filled out and don’t want to bother with a potentially dangerous UNLV, especially not on our home court. Expect two filler teams, don’t be surprised if we have to fill it with a D-II opponent, which is unusual but not unheard of. Best outcome would be filling one of  the games with BYU – they still have name recognition but will be vastly inferior with losing Jimmer, but from the way the coach has talked we aren’t going to play BYU next season.