2012-13 Season Predictions II

Will this year's success equal or surpass last years?

Last weekend, Rebel Reign shared predictions for the season (win-loss). This week, Rebel Reign contributor Jason Taylor (RebelGrad95) shares his predictions for the season. Before we begin, an update on two of last year's senior players. Chace Stanback has landed himself playing professional basketball in France (picture of Stanback, good luck reading french), and Oscar Bellfield has landed on the New York Knick's preliminary roster (news release from Knicks). Congratulations guys, may wealth and success find you, and the UNLV brand spread world-wide. 

2012-13 Season Predictions by Jason Taylor:

Dixie State (exhibition) (1-0)

Northern Arizona (2-0)

Jacksonville State (3-0)

- The first 3 games (including the exhibition) will help us establish a wide average margin-of-win. We’ll win these games, hopefully by an average of 30 points.

Nov. 23 Oregon 

Nov. 24 Cincinnati or Iowa State Toss-up 

Nov. 28 UC Irvine 

Dec. 1 Hawaii 

Dec. 4 at Portland  

Dec. 9 at California 

Dec. 13 University of La Verne (D-III)

Dec. 17 at Texas-El Paso 

Dec. 19 Northern Iowa 
Dec. 22 Canisius 

- Then, we’ll face several good teams by the time we play Canisius.  I think it would be a stretch to think we’ll win all of them.  Oregon, Cincy, Northern Iowa (beat us in NCAA tournament 2 years ago), Cal, Portland… even Hawaii was tough to get past last year.  We’ll be fortunate to be (12-1) before the UNC Game.

Dec. 29 at North Carolina

- Do we have a legit chance to beat UNC… of course, but playing them “away” has to push the odds in their favor.  12-2.

Jan. 3 Chicago State 
Jan. 5 Cal State Bakersfield

- We’ll win the next 2 with home games with Chicago St and Cal St Bakersfield.  14-2.

Jan. 9 at New Mexico
Jan. 12 Air Force
Jan. 16 at San Diego State
Jan. 19 at Colorado State
Jan. 24 Wyoming
Jan. 29 UNR
Feb. 2 at Boise St.
Feb. 6 at Fresno St.
Feb. 9 New Mexico
Feb. 13 at Air Force
Feb. 16 San Diego St.
Feb. 20 Colorado St.
Feb. 23 at Wyoming
Mar. 2 at UNR
Mar. 6 Boise St.
Mar. 9 Fresno St.

- Then, we’ll have 16 Conference games.  In theory, and talent per talent, we should win out during conference play.  Then again, last year, we shouldn’t have lost almost the entire back half of conference road games either. 

- I have a big “if” statement that will determine how well we’ll do, and responsibility doesn't lie on the players.  IF Rice has learned how to better manage minutes and keep legs fresh, I predict we will go 13-3 in conference play.  This would leave us at 27-5 (26-5 throwing out the exhibition). 

- If he doesn’t, we’ll lose a few more road games again, and we’ll end up at 25-7. 

Overall, going beyond regular season, I predict a 30 win season because I think Rice will spread minutes better this year, and I think that by the end of the season our “young” kinks will have been largely worked out.  Therefore, I predict a tournament championship, which means 3 more wins. 

If we are 26-5, or 25-6 at MWC tournament start, that will put us at 28-29 wins. 

This year, while I understand the difficulties of the tournament, I believe the chances of winning 2 games are strong, putting us into the 30-win category (not including exhibition game). 

Can we win 4 more?  Yes, but the chances mount against us, of course.  However, how long has it been when serious fans can legitimately answer, “Yes” to that question? 

Go Rebels!

Becoming known as a pro-prospect: Stanback and Bellfield compete at Portsmouth Invitational

Yet another diversion from analysing the roster, but the opportunity to report on an event that involves two recent Rebels and hasn’t been reported hardly anywhere else is worth talking about.

The Portsmouth Invitational is a tournament which has existed for 60 years, and invites graduating seniors to play in a round-robin style tournament which spans 4 days and fields 8 teams of players. Invited to the tournament this year from our 2011-12 Rebels is Chase Stanback and Oscar Bellfield.

Chace, who was among  the leaders in the NCAA in 3 point percentage, was also invited to the 3-point contest at the NCAA final, and played in the all-star game as well. Oscar has been a fixture in the Rebels lineup over the past four years, and has regularly logged more minutes on the court than any other Rebel. The Portsmouth Invitational, as well as assumedly tryouts for NBA D-League teams (should the draft not quite work out) will be a major stepping stone for both Stanback and Bellfield .

Now, let’s get to what actually occurred at the tournament. Chace Stanabck was put on a team named Cherry, Bekaert & Holland – an accounting firm who likes to put their name on things, obviously. Oscar Bellfield was placed on a team named Portsmouth Partnership, named after a non-profit dedicated to promoting economic growth, leadership and education within the city of Portsmouth. What’s in a name – nothing.

Chace Stanback


The initial game for Chace came against a team named K&D Rounds Landscaping. Chace took the bull by the horns and capitalized well from the field. He shot poorly from three, but still made 50% of his shots. Not sure how closely the refees were calling this one (likely not much because it was an exhibition for scouts), but Chace didn’t get to the foul like to attempt any baskets – meaning his stat line had no padding.

Here's what Ryan Maddox of NBADraft.net had to say about Stanback's performance:

"6’8” Chace Stanbeck (UNLV) stood out immediately. His final numbers won’t wow you (11 points, 2 boards, 1 block), but I’d be shocked if this kid doesn’t at least have a cup of coffee in the league sooner than later. Going 5-10 from the field, he simply would not be sped up and played a consistent, effective pace all night. Hit a catch and shoot three on a kickout in the early going. Drove hard to a kill spot from the FT line extended off two dribbles and rose up over his defender and buried a jumper. Not a lot of wasted motion/energy with this guy. Could be more vocal/demonstrative – especially in a setting like this. Went 1-5 from deep tonight but mechanics/shot selection both check out. Shot over 45% from distance during the season. Want to see him matchup with Kevin Murphy tomorrow. Has the size to guard 2s/3s at the next level – could be a huge mismatch for opposing 2s with his length/range."

Here are his stats for game one:

Game two:

In the second game, which his team lost by two points to Portsmouth Sports Club (not Oscar's team) Chace shot pretty well from the field, and all of his stats were respectable. He had the same amount of points as in the first game, but took two additional attempts. Given that Chace's team lost, they then went to the consolation game for third place. Low and behold, they were to compete against Oscar Bellfield's team. Here's the stat line:

Oscar Bellfield

Oscar started the tournament off with a rocky overall performance. Fortunately for his team, they won the game despite it. Oscar was in a funk shooting-wise, and only hit one shot all game despite seven attempts. Disappointingly, his assist to turnover ratio was 1. These were very un-oscarlike numbers, maybe he was just a little too used to runnin Coach Rice's offense to play the generic ball dished out by the 'Portsmouth Partnership'. On to game two, here is the statline:

Game two

Having basically mulliganed the first outing, expectations were 'no where to go but up' right? Well, sort of. Oscar again only made one basket in the outing, but at least he didn't have any turnovers. So, three assists to 0 turnovers makes for a good average. Bellfield's team would not get another shot to make it to the tournament game because they were blown out by 'Roger Browns' by 20 points. BUT, this set up an intriguing matuchp Oscar Bellfield's team would face Chace Stanback! Intriguing! Here is the statline:

Trading Places - Oscar plays against Chace

In the name of making a name for yourself in front of Mitch Kupchak (L.A. Lakers), Daryl Morey (Houston Rockets) and Rick Sund (Atlanta Hawks) to name a few, a match up between two UNLV players occurred, and although it wasn't Shawn Marion vs. Joel Anthony in the NBA finals, it is still a noteworthy occurrence. 

Leading up to the game, we had Chace Stanback playing good basketball, and Oscar not-so-much. Would anything change? Would Oscar tell his players how to throw Chace off his game, or vice versa? Clearly, because they play different positions they wouldn't go head to head. The take away from this game was that things changed for both Chace and Oscar, a dramatic change for both. 

Looking at the statline, Chace - who had been having fantastic performances totally fell off. He jacked up way to many shots, and connected on about a quarter of those  tries. In contrast, Oscar was measured, and shot the ball much better than he did in the first two games. Bellfield couldn't shake the turnover bug, and again had 3 giveaways - but so did Chace. The better team on this particular day ended up being Oscar's, which resulted in an overall third place finish for his team. Here's the box score:

Conclusion

Chace had 2 of 3 good games, and performed as a reliable scorer in those games. He wasn't dominant, but for a GM who is looking at the Portsmouth Invitational to potentially pick up players in the draft or free agency - dominance is really going to be overstated at this level anyhow. The last impact player to come out of the Portsmouth Invitational was Jeremy Lin - but the reason that he is a phenomena is partly because of the challenges of being branded 'lesser' from the gate - Oscar and Chace will face similar difficulties moving forward. Chace likely maintained his value in this tournament and may inspire a GM to take a chance on a hard to guard player who can shoot the three, all be it in a streaky manner. Oscar had one lackluster performance after another, and likely didn't make much of a mark on the radar. Over the years, Oscar has single handedly won games for the Rebels, and done some pretty amazing things. Hopefully the scouts may take a chance on him in the D-league,and he gets the chance to run the point for a new team sometime soon. Although you cannot find a very good recap of the Portsmouth invitational, hardly any photos, or video of it -  it sill mattered, and it featured two of our favored sons. So, to Chace and Oscar - best of luck to you moving forward. 

Season awards

Season awards

Every season, players deserve to be recognized for their accomplishments. Let these awards recognize some of the outstanding accomplishments of last season, and are no way a slight to anyone who was not recognized. Unlike Tee ball, not everyone will get a trophy. Let’s celebrate the Runnin’ Rebels!

Points leader – Chace Stanback 

Chace led the Rebels in points made during the season, making 162/339 field goals, equaling 47% . His scoring led the UNLV to its first national ranking of the season, and helped the team dominate the 76 Anaheim Classic, winning MVP. When the team was without significant contributions from Tre’von Willis, Stanback was leading the way. His best game of the season came against Wisconsin scoring 25 points in 32 minutes, helping the Rebels to beat the highly respected Badgers 68-65. Chace also had nearly a high at 24 points in the 94-79 beating at TCU. That game was mostly garbage time, with an attendance of about 300, but it helped the Rebels regain some confidence going into a showdown with the top-rated SDSU Aztecs. Stanback averaged 13.0 PPG for the season.

- Honorable mention – Tre’von Willis

Willis scored 382 points on 125 of 289 shooting, equaling 43%. He actually had a slightly higher average than Stanback with 13.2 PPG, but played less due to injuries / suspension. Willis’s highest production came against the New Mexico Lobos on February 23 where he scored 25 points and we won in overtime 77-74.

Rebounds leader – Chace Stanback

Who would have guessed it? One would assume it would have been one of the ‘big 3’ who would have earned that title, but Stanback led the team in rebounds last season. Stanback collected 60 offensive rebounds and 135 defensive rebounds totaling 195 boards.  He averaged 5.9 a game. There are qualities that make someone more akin to rebounding, size, position, and hustle are a few. Chace is 6’8” so he can grab basketball over smaller guards and forwards. Chace seemed to be in the right place at the right time, either by luck or intuition.

- Honorable mention – Quintrell Thomas

A member of the three-headed-monster, he racked up 64 offensive and 107 defense rebounds for a total of 171 boards. He did this playing considerably almost half the minutes that Stanback did, 507 vs 967, so his rebound production was on-par with what one would expect. Surely, had Q been given the minutes he would have led the category.

Steals leader – Tre’von Willis

Tre’von Willis led the team with 46, making him leader of the pickpockets. This number was actually an improvement over the previous season’s 41 steals. Steals are quite valuable because they take away the opposing teams opportunity to score, and usually lead to transition points.

-Honorable mentions – Anthony Marshall and Justin Hawkins

Anthony Marshall had 42 steals, and Justin Hawkins had 41. Both figure to be key pieces of UNLVs forward progress, and one or both will have to do even better in the absence of Willis. Also impressive about Hawkins, he had 41 playing over 200 less minutes than Willis or Marshall.

Three point shots leader – Oscar Bellfield

Oscar Bellfield made 66 of 174 attempts, equaling nearly 38%. In addition to being the three-point leader, he was running the team at point guard, which takes a lot of energy. While this past season as a team was not stellar from beyond the arc, 38% is still an impressive figure. Hopefully a more potent offense will free up shooters from three helping Oscar to shoot even more next season.

- Honorable mention – Chace Stanback

Chace Stanback made 47 of 130, equaling 36% from 3. Provided he is not suspended for too long his shooting will be critical with the absence of Willis.

Blocks leader – Carlos Lopez

Carlos Lopez led the way last year with 25 blocks. A formidable blocking presence tends to shut down easy layups and dunks, making a team have to take more jump shots. Lopez was only a freshman last year – look for big things from him, he has the chance to be really special.

- Honorable mention – Quintrell Thomas

Quintrell Thomas was right behind Lopez with 24 blocks. This was an impressive feat seeing how he is only 6’8” as compared to Lopez at 6’11”. Both Thomas and Lopez enjoyed first year success at UNLV and look to capitalize further next year.

Newcomer of the year – Quintrell Thomas

Although he transferred in from Kansas, it is a tough task to crack the starting lineup in your first year with a team that wins as many games with the Rebels. Quintrell did just that. He became a force to be reckoned with once he figured out how to deal with Coach Kruger’s constant substitutions and foul trouble. Because he came from Kansas, there was a lot of hype and expectations for Thomas – 

but he has lived up to it. Expect great things from him.

- Honorable mention – Carlos Lopez

As a redshirt freshmen he provided energy and important production that helped the Rebels succeed this past year.

Most improved player – Anthony Marshall

Marshall elevated his game between his freshman and sophomore years. His numbers jumped from 5.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game to 9.7 points, 4.0 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game. He filled in admirably when Willis was out, and his leaping ability was unmatched during the year, producing highlight dunks. The future looks very bright for this local player’s junior season.

Hustle guy / fan favorite – Carlos Lopez

From his bouncy fro to his fauxhawk, Carlos has been a colorful addition to the roster and has won the support of the fans. When he enters the game, its instant energy. Besides putting more energy and effort when he is in, he’s shown some crafty footwork and fakes that make him exciting to watch. He also led the team in blocked shots, so that’s always fun. Look for Lopez to get even better and earn more minutes next season.

Mr. Quotes – Quintrell Thomas

Hardly did a week go by without Quintrell getting quoted in the newspaper saying something short but extremely accurate about what needed to happen next game, or what just happened. Somewhere during last season a Thomas quote became a staple of any good article. Frankly I want more, this guy has a lot to say, but he says it in a mature manner. Kudos to Quintrell for talking the talk and backing it up.

Iron man award – Oscar Bellfield

He played more than any other rebel last season, 1111 minutes. No other Rebel even cracked 1000. He averaged 33.7 minutes per game and never missed one. This figure is way up from the 28 MPG the season previous. Hopefully all those minutes didn’t wear him out. Please take an ice bath, we’ll need you healthy for your final campaign as a Rebel.

Celebrating UNLV history award – Dave Rice and Stacey Augmon

It is always good to see a team celebrate its history, and it’s also important in doing so not to trivialize the job by filling it with an alumni. UNLV met both criteria by selecting Coach Dave Rice and Assistant Coach Stacey Augmon, both members of the 1990 championship team. I would have to call Stacey Augmon’s move to the Rebels more of a personal sacrifice, so I think it’s worth celebrating. He had a great gig going for him with the Denver Nuggets, and obviously a good life in Denver. No doubt, Stacey made some sacrifices to come and be a Rebel again. Welcome back!

MVP – Chace Stanback

When UNLV was headed in the right direction last season he was right out front. Stanback is the reason why the Rebels were initially ranked, and he dominated the Anaheim classic, winning MVP there as well. Clearly, you have to give the points and rebound leader the award, he has earned it. Hopefully Stanback is able to top his Junior year and lead the Rebels further into the NCAA tournament.

Also, congratulations to Shawn Marion and Joel Anthony to being key parts of their teams march to the NBA Finals. UNLV Athletics had this snazzy graphic posted, so I thought I would share: