Sunday, September 9, 2012

Season Predictions 2012-13

The Mendenhall Center - a new training advantage this season

The schedule has been out for awhile now, and no time like the present to forecast how the Rebels will do pre-tournament. There are four designations that a game can get. Win, Loss, Toss-up - Win, Toss  up - Loss. Explanations will be given where necessary.

The Rebels' non-conference schedule for the 2012-13 season: 
(Bold means home game)
Nov. 7 Dixie State (exhibition) - Win (1-0)
Nov. 12 Northern Arizona - Win (2-0)
- true home opener, inferior competition, this hopefully will be a blowout.
Nov. 17 Jacksonville State - Win (3-0)
- they finished 15-18 last season and scored about as much as Air Force (likely not by design).
Nov. 23 Oregon - Toss-up - Win (4-0)
- This is going to be a sick game, Oregon features Ben Carter and Jonathan Lloyd, both from Bishop Gorman, as well as Dominic Artis from Findlay Prep. They should be a legit team, but UNLV should give them more than they can handle early in the season.
Nov. 24 Cincinnati or Iowa State Toss-up Win (5-0)
- The Rebels have historically done well in fall tournaments regardless of venue - this one will be no different. Both teams are legit, just barely missed out on being pre-season top-25 candidates, so it'll likely be 5 point or less victory.
Nov. 28 UC Irvine - Win (6-0)
- Blowout
Dec. 1 Hawaii - Win (7-0)
Dec. 4 at Portland  - Win (8-0)
Dec. 9 at California - Toss-up Win - (9-0)
- should be a well coached team, better than the one that visited the T&M last season.
Dec. 13 University of La Verne-z (D-III) - Win (10-0)
- blowout, likely a lot of bench players see minutes
Dec. 17 at Texas-El Paso - Toss Up - Win (11-0)
Dec. 19 Northern Iowa -Toss-up Win (12-0)
Dec. 22 Canisius - Win (13-0)
Dec. 29 at North Carolina Toss Up - Loss (13-1)
- They will be less loaded than they were last year, but they will be at home and want revenge. Every part of me wants to say we'll win, but my brain says we'll lose - but respectably. Reality speaking, UNC was 17-1 at home last year, only losing to Duke by 1 point. Let's put it this way, nobody predicted we would beat them at the Orleans last year, and we did - so there is hope.
Jan. 3 Chicago State - Win (14-1)
Jan. 5 Cal State Bakersfield - Win (15-1) 

Conference Schedule
Jan. 9 at New Mexico - Toss-up - Win (16-1)
Jan. 12 Air Force - Win (17-1)
Jan. 16 at San Diego State Toss-up - Loss (17-2)
- damn them, as much as I would like a win - they project to be too tough of a team for even the Rebels to beat in their house. The curse continues. Going to be a hell of a game though... Did you know ESPN projected them #16 of the top 25 (UNLV #23)? They must think they know something I chose not to believe is true.
Jan. 19 at Colorado State - Win (18-2)
Jan. 24 Wyoming - Win - (19-2)
Jan. 29 UNR - Toss-up Win (20-2)
- Ok, UNR is supposedly going to be a tough team (see the "don't sleep on") - but I'm not seeing it. The only thing they have going for them is a team mostly made up of juniors and seniors. That said, they lost two key guys, Olek Czyz and Dario Hunt.
Feb. 2 at Boise St. - Win (21-2)
Feb. 6 at Fresno St. - Toss-up - Loss (21-3)
- I just have a feeling, given the gumption that sometimes Fresno State brews up, along with the limited rest between road games that this one is going to be an unexpected loss to what will be an inferior team.
Feb. 9 New Mexico - Toss-up - Loss (21-4)
- They will be seeking vengence for us beating them at the Pit. We will be wary from more lack of rest, and they will unfortunately even the score.
Feb. 13 at Air Force - Win (22-4)
Feb. 16 San Diego St. - Toss-up - Win (23-4)
- Pride will allow us to overcome and beat these guys in our house. Also expecting by this time in the season SDSU to have an injury to one key player, perhaps James Rahon possibly Tapley is banged up as well.
Feb. 20 Colorado St. - Win (24-4)
- They won't be the challenge they were in the past, without Tim Miles at the helm.
Feb. 23 at Wyoming - Toss-up - Loss (24-5)
- Wyoming always overachieves late in the season. I have a feeling we will sleep on them and they will win an ugly game in Laramie.
Mar. 2 at UNR - Toss-up - Win (25-5)
- I definitely see the Rebels riding into the MWC tournament with a 3 game win streak. No matter how good UNR is, we're beating them in Lawlor.
Mar. 6 Boise St. - Win (26-5)
Mar. 9 Fresno St. - Win (27-5)
- The earlier loss was a freak occurrence. We'll win senior night, guaranteed.

So, I predict the Rebels will end the regular season with a record of 27-5 (26-5 if the exhibition game doesn't count). 

Also, the Rebels will be ranked top-25 throughout the regular season, and land a 4 seed in the tournament. 

Have a different take on what our record will be? Share with other fans here

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