Sunday, September 16, 2012

2012-13 Season Predictions II

Will this year's success equal or surpass last years?

Last weekend, Rebel Reign shared predictions for the season (win-loss). This week, Rebel Reign contributor Jason Taylor (RebelGrad95) shares his predictions for the season. Before we begin, an update on two of last year's senior players. Chace Stanback has landed himself playing professional basketball in France (picture of Stanback, good luck reading french), and Oscar Bellfield has landed on the New York Knick's preliminary roster (news release from Knicks). Congratulations guys, may wealth and success find you, and the UNLV brand spread world-wide. 

2012-13 Season Predictions by Jason Taylor:

Dixie State (exhibition) (1-0)
Northern Arizona (2-0)
Jacksonville State (3-0)

- The first 3 games (including the exhibition) will help us establish a wide average margin-of-win. We’ll win these games, hopefully by an average of 30 points.

Nov. 23 Oregon 
Nov. 24 Cincinnati or Iowa State Toss-up 
Nov. 28 UC Irvine 
Dec. 1 Hawaii 
Dec. 4 at Portland  
Dec. 9 at California 
Dec. 13 University of La Verne (D-III)
Dec. 17 at Texas-El Paso 
Dec. 19 Northern Iowa 
Dec. 22 Canisius 

- Then, we’ll face several good teams by the time we play Canisius.  I think it would be a stretch to think we’ll win all of them.  Oregon, Cincy, Northern Iowa (beat us in NCAA tournament 2 years ago), Cal, Portland… even Hawaii was tough to get past last year.  We’ll be fortunate to be (12-1) before the UNC Game.

Dec. 29 at North Carolina

- Do we have a legit chance to beat UNC… of course, but playing them “away” has to push the odds in their favor.  12-2.

Jan. 3 Chicago State 
Jan. 5 Cal State Bakersfield

- We’ll win the next 2 with home games with Chicago St and Cal St Bakersfield.  14-2.

Jan. 9 at New Mexico
Jan. 12 Air Force
Jan. 16 at San Diego State
Jan. 19 at Colorado State
Jan. 24 Wyoming
Jan. 29 UNR
Feb. 2 at Boise St.
Feb. 6 at Fresno St.
Feb. 9 New Mexico
Feb. 13 at Air Force
Feb. 16 San Diego St.
Feb. 20 Colorado St.
Feb. 23 at Wyoming
Mar. 2 at UNR
Mar. 6 Boise St.
Mar. 9 Fresno St.
- Then, we’ll have 16 Conference games.  In theory, and talent per talent, we should win out during conference play.  Then again, last year, we shouldn’t have lost almost the entire back half of conference road games either. 

- I have a big “if” statement that will determine how well we’ll do, and responsibility doesn't lie on the players.  IF Rice has learned how to better manage minutes and keep legs fresh, I predict we will go 13-3 in conference play.  This would leave us at 27-5 (26-5 throwing out the exhibition). 

- If he doesn’t, we’ll lose a few more road games again, and we’ll end up at 25-7. 

Overall, going beyond regular season, I predict a 30 win season because I think Rice will spread minutes better this year, and I think that by the end of the season our “young” kinks will have been largely worked out.  Therefore, I predict a tournament championship, which means 3 more wins. 

If we are 26-5, or 25-6 at MWC tournament start, that will put us at 28-29 wins. 

This year, while I understand the difficulties of the tournament, I believe the chances of winning 2 games are strong, putting us into the 30-win category (not including exhibition game). 

Can we win 4 more?  Yes, but the chances mount against us, of course.  However, how long has it been when serious fans can legitimately answer, “Yes” to that question? 

Go Rebels!

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