Sticky Tar Heels - Observations from the loss

The basic plot of this game was whether the re-emergence of UNLV's place in college basketball could out muscle a under-performing UNC, who get a shot at revenge this time in their home arena. The end result was a 79-73 loss.

The oddsmakers kept it real, while UNLV is a fantastic basketball team most nights, and arguably loaded with as much talent as any team out west, the Runnin' Rebels were 4 point underdogs to the Tar Heels. Why? Home court advantage, they are UNC, and they were motivated. The Rebs lost the game by slightly more than the spread, but nonetheless it was a close game in the second half. Even though UNLV was the #20 team and UNC was unranked, this was in no way an "upset" as some media outlets have called it.

The statistics show that several players played well - starters, and the bench did not add enough to boost the Rebels to victory. Katin Reinhardt was particularly impressive with his 3 point shooting, as was Anthony Marshall. The ESPN commentators lauded Marshall considerably for his dominance over whatever guard matched up against him. Its tough to figure the Rebels losing a game where we had four players with double digit scoring, but Marshall, Reinhardt, Bennett, and Bryce Dejean-Jones all had production. They accounted for 59 of the Rebels 73 points (almost 81% of scoring). Anthony Bennett was not his normal self in the first half, and finished the game without hitting a signature three pointer. While the four that did score shared the load, very little else was contributed from the others whereas UNC didn't have that problem.

The other reason that the Rebels lost a game with four guys scoring in double digits, was a lack of effective defense. The Rebels played a passive lackadaisical defense in the first half, and when they did actually try UNC still managed to make their shoots look too easy. The Tar Heels shot 53% in the first half, compared to the Rebels 38%. Even with defensive adjustments in the second half, the Rebels were only able to drop the Tar Heels to 47.8% in the second half. Besides their free throw shooting, UNC just had a really good shooting night - whether or not the UNLV defense bothered them.

Telling stats in this one besides overall shooting, was the Rebels dominated rebounding (38-33) but turned the ball over far more than the Heels (17-12). While both teams shot poorly from the free throw line, UNC got themselves in the double bonus very early and had a lot more opportunities (at home) to make some. In all, they were 20 of 33, whereas the Rebels were 11 of 21. That's a nine point difference, enough to have swung the game into a Rebels victory.

Home advantage - The common notion is that playing in your home court gives you a ten point advantage, due to familiarity  lack of having to travel, and fan support. Putting that notion to work, that would explain our victory over then #1 UNC last year (by 10) and our loss this year. Clearly, had UNC played us at the Mack or even the Orleans this year, we likely would have won this game. On the subject of fan support, UNLV did have a robust fan contingent travel to Chapel Hill and watch the game - that speaks well of UNLV fans and how much they support the team. Bravo!

Splitting the series - While it still stings to lose a game when you've only had one previous loss, its is not a bad loss, its an explainable loss, and regard the 'legacy' that Anthony Marshall alluded to when referencing potentially beating UNC today - this still is a good legacy. The Rebs played UNC close today, and were not "dominated" in any way by them. Fact of the matter is nobody  has beaten UNC at home this year, and their overall home winning percentage is almost 90% over the last five years - and that's playing in the normally tough ACC. Beating UNC last year at a 'neutral' venue, and playing them close at home this year is an admirable accomplishment and is definitely improvement.

Mike Moser - It was nice to see Mike Moser back on the court, surprising since Coach Rice said it was unlikely and would be a game time decision, and Mike himself said  there was 'no way' that he would play in this game. But, having seen Mike in there you have to wonder whether it was the right decision. First, I don't believe Mike cost the Rebels the game. Had he not played we may have seen more of Savon Goodman, Quintrell Thomas, and Carlos Lopez-Sosa, but none of those guys had much going for them, so it was a wash. But, Mike was either not fully recovered, or likely a bit rusty. In just 12 minutes of playing time he picked up 5 fouls, and only contributed 3 points. That kind of fouling would make even Carlos Lopez-Sosa blush. Nobody is going to argue that having Mike Moser on your team is a bad thing, but it appears (hindsight 20-20) that it might have been better for Mike to bring him back against our next two cream-puff opponents (Chicago State and CSU Bakersfield).

Conclusion - In all likelihood just one of the players the Rebels normally count on to do big things (Justin Hawkins, Khem Birch, Quintrell Thomas, or Mike Moser) being productive would have won the game, or at least have made it a nail biter. The saying that you learn more from your mistakes then victories rings true, and the Rebels will benefit from this loss. I would say Katin Reinhardt should have confidence from his shooting, Bennett can be emboldened by his dunks on UNC, Marshall out played the Tar Heel guards, and Bryce Dejean-Jones made some difficult shots. Everyone else knows they can and have done better. The Rebels may fall a few spots in the rankings, or may fall out completely - not their fault. It all depends on who's popular among the voting group, and whether there are 25 better teams out there then the Rebels. Clearly, New Mexico has claim to one of  those spots, but it will take more from Texas and UCLA to lay claim to one given their records so far this year. UNC may have gotten back into the high 20's with this win, who knows.

College Basketball

Post-Holiday Points: UNLV takes Runnin' to Chapel Hill

Versus Canisius: The Runnin' Rebels were the Defendin'  Rebels beating a much improved Canisius team 89-74. If the road game against UTEP was Khem Birch's debut, this would have been his highlight reel introduction. 6 blocks, are you kidding? Of course, anyone would have guess that was possible given the comments Quintrell Thomas had made about respecting Birch's swatting abilities, combined with the many plays where he all but had a block but someone else fouled the player just before the block. Major credit as usual goes to Anthony Bennnett, who when on the court had the Rebels comfortably ahead, and seemingly not-so-much when off the court. Justin Hawkins had 3 blocks himself, among providing valuable point production. Further worth noting, is Katin Reinhardt made his living this game not at the three point line, but by driving to the hoop - something he hasn't done a ton of since high school. It was efficient and well played basketball, and came at a much higher percentage than the three attempts. Katin realizes that his 3 ball just isn't falling at the click he wants, so he's decided to change his game a bit - bravo!

Trending Rankings: The trending stories are that the MWC, who has often had 3 teams in the rankings (UNLV, New Mexico, and SDSU in ever changing order) now only has two. New Mexico dropped a home game to a South Dakota State team who had just driven 1100 miles in a bus to get to Albuquerque because their flight got canceled. This forced a lot of voters to rethink the power of New Mexico, and pushed them out of the top-25 completely. UNLV now ranks 20/17 in the polls. Foe SDSU is likely to push even higher as suffered another loss but took it to the wire against #3 Arizona (67-68) in the Hawaii classic.

Something to prove: Although basketball games shouldn't be thought of psychologically  unless its to one teams advantage, people with too much time on their hands (like me) start to think about things. UNC has a lot of advantages coming into this Saturday's game, even though they are not a ranked team anymore. #1 Revenge - any team who was bested last season in the fashion the Rebels did would want Revenge #2 Nothing to lose - with no ranking to lose, UNC can play loose, where as UNLV would likely move down in the rankings  if we lost to UNC, even though nobody has beaten them at home all season. #3

Injuries: With Mike Moser doing better, but still a few weeks away from playing, other notable injuries occurred during the Canisius game that could have some impact on the UNC game. Savon Goodman suffered a quad injury during the game that limited his playing time to 3 minutes. Anthony Marshall was limping considerably in the second half of the game. And perhaps more seriously  Bryce Dejean-Jones took a hard fall on an offensive foul that left him dazed with a cut on the side of his head. With the holiday layoff being just the right kind of healing the Rebels need facing their toughest foe yet, all hope is that everyone rests and heals up so we aren't beaten by lack of depth.

Depth: With the emergence of Khem Birch, there is a lot of depth issue the Rebels can play with. Right now I'd have to say (with Moser Injured) this is the best team they can put on the court:

Center: Khem Birch
Forward: Bryce Dejean-Jones
Forward: Anthony Bennett
Guard: Anthony Marshall
Guard: Justin Hawkins

Next in line at each major position:
Center: Quintrell Thomas
Forward: Savon Goodman
Guard: Katin Reinhardt

With Moser back - things get pretty interesting. Likely the best thing to do regardless of position is to attempt to play our best players no more than 25 minutes a game, and have more-than-capable backups play the remaining 15. This will keep legs fresh and defense intense throughout the rest of non-conference, and then the difficult conference schedule.

Happy Holidays! Looking for a little holiday magic for an inspired late-December game in North Carolina! Go Runnin' Rebels!

Summarizing the week, and reflecting

The holidays have slowed my ability to write about and document the Runnin’ Rebels – but it also lends some greater perspective when summing up UNLV’s performance over the span of a week.

Since our last update, the Rebels have faced three foes, LaVerne, UTEP, and Northern Iowa.

What was encouraging about LaVerne, was Katin Reinhardt finding his range from outside the arc (4 for 6)– something he’s attempted to do quite frequently, and unfortunately nearly as frequently missed at. Another positive is that DaQuan Cook, who had planned to burn his redshirt and get some playing time, did that in this game. He played rather well, remember – he’s a pass first pure point guard, but he can score as well. Disappointing – Carlos Lopez-Sosa, who had a significant height advantage against LaVerne’s entire roster, managed limited offense and still was in foul trouble (4 fouls in 21 minutes). I love his skill set, size and attitude, but he really needs to figure out this foul trouble issue. I’m hopeful that Lopez-Sosa will enjoy the senior bump that other Rebel big men had (Brice Massamba, Quintrell Thomas) next season, and be able to play his game without fouling.

UTEP was a tough game. The Rebels strung together two average halves of basketball, playing great defense for the first half and not so much in the second. Although the Rebels scored exactly 31 points in both halves of play, the scoring came in bunches, and then trailed off late in the game for the Rebels. This allowed a UTEP team, who found some rhythm to score 38 points in the second half and put themselves in a position to steal the game on a last second three attempt by Konner Tucker.  The reason UNLV didn’t have a stellar outing perhaps revolved around UTEPS ability to contain Anthony Bennett, or perhaps AB just having an off night on his own (maybe a little of both). They say a win is a win, and that is surely undeniable, so we’ll take it and hopefully learn from it. Further proof that UTEP is a good team, is that several nights later (while we were playing UNI) UTEP took Oregon to triple overtime, and ended up beating them. Remember, Oregon is the lone opponent who beat us this year, and unfortunately snapped a 20 game home win streak. Another note was the first appearance of Khem Birch, although he didn’t get a whole lot going this game his potential to be great was definitely visible, and would show itself the following game at home.

Back at the Thomas and Mack, the Rebels faced the University of Northern Iowa on Wednesday the 19^th of Dec. We were familiar with this team from a tragic loss in the NCAA tournament a few years back. Although Northern Iowa was supposed to be a very good team, we treated them like LaVerne in the first half and destroyed them. Anthony Bennett shook off his previous funk from UTEP, and Khem Birch arrived at just the right time to challenge foes in  the paint, as well as having some good post-up moves to the basket. In the UTEP game, Coach Rice played Bennett and Birch separately – not this time. They played brilliantly together, and in the absence of Mike Moser Birch got plenty of minutes to acclimate himself to the court, and the crowd. While he officially only had 1 block, there were many a play that a foul was called where Khem clearly would have executed tremendous blocks. In addition to the block, he notched nearly a double double, and had 2 steals. 

Bennett was enjoying himself considerably out there, he was dunking, shooting the three, and even pretending to be a nimble guard. The only thing left would be for him to jump into the crowd, grab a box of popcorn, and applaud his own performance. UNI got a little close with about 7-8 minutes left, but then the Rebels put them back within a safe distance, and finished out the game strong. Anthony Marshall shot 50% from three point land (3 of 6) and was a steady leader. Noticed that Anthony’s hand was wrapped, asked him about it today and he said it was fine – so that’s good. Given the dominance of the Rebels in this game, would have liked to see DaQuan Cook play a little more, he only was in the game for 4 minutes.

Summary, and reflection:

Beating people by jaw dropping margins – One distinction between the teams that are ranked 1-10 and us in the back of the rankings, is the margin by which they beat other teams. If you look at the current #1 Duke, they’ve beaten the teams that have no chance at making the tournament by a margin of 20-50 points. Better teams, closer obviously. Same thing with #2 Michigan, and so on and so on… Nonetheless, we’ve beaten bad teams by close margins. The only blowout I can see in our schedule was against D-III LaVerne, which in all candor should be expected. Part of the problem is not being able to string two really productive halves of basketball together on the defensive and offensive end. I think that the people who contribute to the AP and Coaches’ polls look at the blowouts and see that this is a team that dominates and demoralizes an opponent rather than merely being satisfied with just beating them. Time will tell if the Rebels get the respect they deserve, if there aren’t teams ahead of us who put a whoopin’ on weak teams but have lost more difficult games than we have.

Another thing that can help our ranking, is only losing to ranked teams. Unfortunately, our lone loss was to Oregon. They looked like they could crack the top-25 before UTEP beat them. Nonetheless, they will likely make the tournament and may even get past the first round based upon the talent they have. They should also be squarely in the mix to compete with Arizona for the Pac-12 title. Oregon was one of the better teams we faced in the non-conference schedule, but they unfortunately were not a ranked team. Obviously, had we beaten Oregon and then lost to Cincinnati, we would be sitting 3-4 spots better.

Media attention / perception – The Rebels are being buoyed and held back by reality and perception.

#1 Reality – Anthony Bennett is a lottery pick. NBADraft.net, which finally got their act together, now has Bennett projected the #8^th pick to Phoenix. With many national media leaders, ESPN, CNNSI, etc proclaiming Anthony Bennett freshman of the year, and the same group putting him in the conversation for player of the year regardless of class – that brings a lot of attention to the Rebels. Unfortunately, that attention somehow has not translated into an increase in the rankings, whereas last year we were arguably ‘over-ranked’ when we hit #11 after beating #1UNC.

#2 Perception – Because a lot of casual national observers are only peripherially familiar with UNLV from last year, that group only knows about Mike Moser. Given that Mike Moser’s elbow dislocation was gruesome enough  to make the national news, many are under the impression that we are substantially hampered without Mike. This may be driving the diminished rankings as well.

UNLV pushes past CAL W76-75

It was a wild game up in Berkley, the fans were into it, and the commentators were into it – if you were watching I’m sure you were into it as well. The game was a tight one, with UNLV controlling the lead for a good majority of the game, then losing that lead in the final minutes and regaining the lead, and win by Quintrell Thomas capitalizing on an airball by Anthony Marshall.

The California Golden Bears were not the chumps we dominated last year at the Thomas and Mack. They were a competitive team who played neck and neck with the Rebels until we finished them off. The Runnin’ Rebels played very good defense against them, and freshman Anthony Bennett showed off on a regular basis during the game, dunking and showing a nice midrange game. The bulk of the scoring was taken up in this game by several players, Anthony Bennett (25 pts, 13 rebs), Bryce Dejean-Jones (22pts) and Anthony Marshall (13 pts, 4 assts, 2 stls).

Obviously, fortunate and unfortunate things happened to two players other than these stat grabbers. Mike Moser, five minutes into the game, dived for a loose ball and a Cal player landed right on his right arm, bending his elbow in a very unnatural way. Medical examination has concluded that the elbow was not fractured, but dislocated. Mike was in a tremendous amount of pain proximate to the time of injury. Preliminary indications are that he may be out 3-6 weeks, hopefully its shorter than longer, and hopefully his hip flexor issue is worked out by then as well. In the fortunate category, Quintrell Thomas was in the game largely due to Mike Mosers’ being on the bench, and perhaps also because Bryce Dejean-Jones fouled out. Quintrell made the game winning shot on a putback. Great moment for Quintrell and the Rebels to win that way on the road.

One thing that was obvious to the eye, was that the Rebels, as a team, seemed to want this victory much more than Cal did. They maybe had 1-2 players of a similar mindset willing to win by any means necessary. That doesn’t translate into the stats, but its as plain as day. Nice win against one of the better teams in the Pac-12. Certainly doesn’t make up for the home loss against Oregon, but Oregon is now on the verge of being in the top-25 (first team out). Today’s rankings have UNLV #20/17 (AP/Coaches), unfortunately see-sawed with MWC foes New Mexico (17/20) and behind San Diego State (18/15)

The next contest will be against D-III Laverne back in town, but in the Orleans. It should be a nice break and should get some of the bench players more minutes. Then, all indications are that Khem Birch will join the team for the road game at UTEP (Dec 17), with his first home game at the Mack on December 19^th (Northern Iowa).  

College Basketball

College Basketball

College Basketball

Positives and negatives: UNLV fights for road win at Portland, W68-60

Starting out with what worked and won the game for the Rebels

Anthony Bennett, the future NBA lottery pick and UNLV’s fantastic freshman, was the rock in this game. Not only did he score the ball with authority, he was consistent in a game where consistency was lacking. His 18 points, 7 of which came as the first points in the game, kept the Rebels competitive in the absence of Mike Moser or any other scoring presence. He would have been more potent had he not been in early foul trouble in the first half, but nonetheless – he was brilliant. Making full use of his appearance on ESPNU, he began the game with an authoritative dunk, and ended it with another – posterizing the Pilot’s defender.

Justin Hawkins few in like the J-Hawk that he is, and saved this one. Playing behind from the jump, he turned the tide mid-way through the second half by putting up a barrage of three point baskets. In addition, he had some fantastic steals.

Quintrell Thomas is becoming a more reliable offensive weapon. He had 9 points and 7 rebounds (6 offensive) in 28 minutes of play.

Anthony Marshall filled out the stat sheet as well, and was the Rebels second leading scorer with 16 points. He was more reliable as well, only one turnover for the point guard and 4 assists.

The Ref’s had a large hand in the victory, citing the Pilots for many fouls and putting them in the bonus 5-6 minutes into the second half. The Rebels fine free throw shooting, although less precise than in the Thomas and Mack, was sufficient to carry the day.

Now for the bulletin board material (motivation to get better)

28-22 at the half? – And we weren't even the “28”. The Rebels anemic first half shooting came because they abandoned what worked so well in the first half of the Hawaii game – inside/outside basketball. There was plenty of runnin’ in this game, but it mostly came up short on the issue of points production. In the end, it’s a lot of energy expended, and inefficient basketball. Granted, teams will have poor shooting days, and hopefully (as was the case last night) those woes will disappear at some point during the game, but the Rebels have the talent advantage, and need to have the confidence to take and make shots that will then make more risky shots go in (if they need to be taken at all). The old phrase, work smarter, not harder, comes to mind.

Other players largely absent in the production department – besides Anthony Bennett, Justin Hawkins (second half), Anthony Marshall, and Quintrell Thomas there was very little production. If players continue to lack the ability to put points on the board, it makes it harder on the reliable scorers such as Anthony Bennett and Anthony Marshall. Teams may double those players when the get the ball, forcing the Rebels to come up with offense elsewhere. The Hawaii game featured a lot of nice backdoor cuts and layups/dunks with Savon Goodman – why not do that. Katin Reinhardt was breaking ankles out there with sick cross-overs, why not dribble penetrate to the basket, take a shot or kick to a forward for a finish? Reinhardt has proven himself a very effective catch and shoot three-point artist, why doesn't someone get him going by doing that? Any Bryce Dejean-Jones --- can someone tell me when they reclassified him as a small forward? Before the season started he was a shooting guard, now he’s rotating with the bigs, does this make any sense?

Why isn’t Lopez-Sosa playing inside? Too often Carlos Lopez-Sosa was playing on the perimeter  offensively throwing screens beyond the three point line, and defensively not near the basket. Last night, because he wasn’t matched up often enough, two of the Pilot’s taller players, Thomas Van Der Mars (6’11”) and Riley Barker (6’10”) scored with little difficulty over Quintrell Thomas (6’8”) and Anthony Bennett (6’9”). The two were a combined 8-12 from the field. Carlos Lopez-Sosa only had 1 foul in 21 minutes – which means he wasn’t working hard enough on defense. So to recap, we didn’t necessarily have a roster mismatch situation, but we created one by not having Carlos Lopez-Sosa defend those guys by the basket. I love CLS as a player, but I am not thrilled whatsoever with his shrinking role and confidence playing the 4/5.

We got outrebounded by Portland?! For a team that was top ten rebounding team, we certainly didn’t show it last night. Portland had 43 rebs, UNLV, 39. Again, perhaps having CLS inside would give us more rebounds. Portland is a scappy team, but seriously…. They average 33 rebounds a game (240^th in the nation). Talent should be tempered with fundamentals, and if the fundamentals are equal, then talent should win the day.

How injured was Mike Moser? A lot was made that this game would be a homecoming for Portland native Mike Moser. The former Oregon’s Mr. Basketball was kept out of the game as a collaborative decision between coaching and medical staff. The contingent he promised of supporters showed up, and audible “Rebels” chants were heard when the Rebels finally did good things. BUT, if he was so injured that he couldn't play even a few minutes – why was he was jumping around on the sideline in street clothes? Seeing a supposedly injured player doing that leads me to two conclusions 1) not really that injured, 2) should use his head and not jump around to prevent further injury. That’s all I’m saying.

Will need to fine tune the machine to have a chance against Cal – California is supposed to have a good team this year; this likely will not be the demolition we watched at the Thomas and Mack last year. They've only lost one game to Wisconsin, and shoot and rebound the ball at a high percentage (top 50 in both categories). Provided Mike Moser is a go (maybe this is why they held him out, so he can be more healthy for this game), we will still have difficulties with them because they are a solid team and we’re playing on their court. The Rebels need to go back to what worked against Hawaii in the first half – it wasn't luck that had us playing like that, it was smart basketball and working to our strengths.

Perspective before the road trip

Hawaii v. UNLV

The Runnin' Rebels were what a pre-Khem Birch Rebels team should look like in the first half against Hawaii. Turnovers were forced, shots were blocked, defense was effective, and the Rebels worked the ball from the post to the three. It was fun basketball to watch, and I imagine the best basketball they have had the chance to play this season. Unfortunately, it could not be sustained for longer than a half.

Sitting comfortably on 49-27 half time lead the Rebels got lazy, selfish, and complacent about finishing off the Rainbow Warriors. Its understandable that a team could get that way -- this is a classic tortoise and the hare situation. Here's how things look not that bad, and then bad.

NCAA Basketball

College Basketball

The Rainbow Warriors scored 8 more points than the Rebels in the second half, which it was critical the lead was 22 when the half started. If Coach Rice can get the guys to play with a reset button mentality - the score is mentally 0 to 0 after the half, then perhaps he can get a more focused effort out of them. This could apply in both really bad shooting nights in the first half, to really great ones as we saw on Saturday.

Injured Moser?

Late in Saturday's game Mike Moser re injured a groin injury that has been nagging him throughout the preseason. He is said to be a game time decision in Portland, a game in his home state. In general, the front line is playing well enough right now to not have a problem dispatching Portland, but this would be another disappointing chain of scheduling luck (previously, Canadian players couldn't participate in the Canada trip, and then the clearance came too late to prepare).

I am a huge fan of Coach Rice's recruiting tool of being able to say "If you join the Rebels, we'll schedule a road game in your hometown sometime during your career". And, I'm sure everyone hopes Mike Moser gets to play in front of all of the Mike Moser fans in Oregon who come see the Rebels. Good luck to Mike!

Tough Mountain

Thus far, the Mountain West has been a very strong conference in college basketball - maybe one of the strongest. This isn't going to be UNLV, SDSU, and  the rest of the teams. NO - There will likely be 4 tournament teams this year, and a strong argument for 5 if things continue the way they do.

Overall, the conference is 51-11 (W-L) and right now UNLV (24/20), SDSU( 23/21), and New Mexico (25/23) are ranked. Wyoming just beat our former tournament opponent, Colorado (19/19), by a score of 76-69 to stay an undefeated 8-0. Colorado State is undefeated as well at 6-0, but has yet to play a legit opponent. They'll get the chance next against Colorado - who will be angry from the Wyoming game.

So, while earlier events didn't lead me to want to revise predictions at all -- the toughness of the MWC may. Hopefully playing MWC foes helps the polls this time, not just the RPI. The only team in the MWC who doesn't have a winning record right now is Fresno State (3-3).